South May <I>Not</i> Rise Again

Dotty Lynch is the Senior Political Editor for CBS News. E-mail your questions and comments to Political Points

But last week at Dartmouth University in New Hampshire, Sen. John Kerry rejected that idea and offered another scenario. "Everybody always makes the mistake of looking south. Al Gore showed he could have won without winning one Southern state, including his own."

Kerry's advisers say he was merely making a factual analytical point, albeit an impolitic one, on the eve of the South Carolina primary. By midweek, Kerry was pledging fealty to Dixie, telling CBS News Anchor Dan Rather that he fully intended to campaign in the South during the primaries and general election and in no way was he trying to dismiss the region's importance.

However, if John Kerry is their nominee, the Democrats will be tempted to pursue a Southwestern strategy; to try to pick up Arizona's 10 electoral votes and hold or win other states with Latino populations rather than spend heavily in Georgia or the Carolinas.

In the Washington Post in November, the University of Maryland's Tom Schaller laid out the argument for the Democrats ditching the South.

"Pundits love to shout into the echo chamber that the last three Democratic presidents have come from the South," Schaller said. "This thinking is not only superficial and retrospective, but it could trigger a partisan realignment that would relegate the Democrats to minority status for a generation.

"Trying to recapture the South is a futile, counterproductive exercise for Democrats because the South is no longer the swing region. It has swung: Richard Nixon's 'Southern strategy' of 1968 has reached full fruition."

Schaller uses an analysis similar to that of two formidable political scientists, Merle and Earl Black, in their book "The Rise of Southern Republicans," to demonstrate how hard it is for Democrats – especially liberal, Northeastern Democrats like Kerry and Dean – to make headway in the South.

Schaller cites former Dean campaign manger Joe Trippi's calculation that if the Democrats can hold "Gore States" from 2000 and add Arizona, they can win without a single Southern state. The argument is even stronger if they can add New Hampshire, which just had a record turnout in the Democratic primary. (Now do you understand why President Bush made a beeline for the Granite State last Thursday?)

Schaller argues: "future presidential contests get a whole lot easier if Democrats successfully employ a Southwestern strategy. Add the solidly Democratic Northeastern and Pacific Coast states. Stir in post-industrial, Midwestern Rust Belt states such as Illinois and Michigan. If Democrats solve their solvable Ohio problem, they can win the presidency without carrying any states south of Maryland and east of the Mississippi River. Non-Southern coalitions worked for the GOP for decades: William McKinley, Teddy Roosevelt, Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge all coasted to victory without the South."

A real problem with this strategy is that five Southern Democratic senators – Graham in Florida, Edwards in North Carolina, Miller in Georgia, Hollings in South Carolina and Breaux in Louisiana – are retiring and their seats are very much up for grabs. If the national Democrats decide not to put a Southerner on the ticket or allocate resources into these states, what impact will it have on these races?

Kevin Phillips who was the architect of the GOP's Southern strategy in the Nixon years suggests that the Democrats don't really have to write off the South forever. He says in the American Prospect that "little guy" economics could bring back states like West Virginia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Arkansas, where joblessness and low wages are real problems. And he suggests that voters in Charleston and Hilton Head hold the same negative views of Bob Jones University as voters in Boston and Madison.

Some recent polling suggests that even in South Carolina, President Bush may be facing problems because of the economy. Mr. Bush himself is taking no chances. He'll be in South Carolina in Thursday to try to repair any damage done by the Democrats over the last few weeks.

The February 3 states offer a very interesting window onto the general election. Arizona and New Mexico, once looked on lovingly by Howard Dean, are now very favorable to John Kerry. If South Carolina comes through for Edwards or Oklahoma for Clark, the Southern strategy may be back in play for the Democrats. Missouri, the ultimate bellwether state – part Northern, part Southern – will see action, no matter where else the Democrats decide to play.

By Dotty Lynch