Russia May Make Deal With Rebels

With Russian troops bogged down in the mountains of Chechnya and suffering heavy losses, the Kremlin is hinting it may no longer be counting on an overwhelming military victory to end the war.

Russian officials repeatedly have claimed that the rebels are close to defeat, but federal forces have been unable to get the militants under control in Chechnya's rugged southern mountains. Hundreds more rebels are believed to be circulating in the Russian-occupied flatlands, including in the capital, Grozny.

The government, reacting to pressure from abroad and faltering public support at home, admits it is talking with Chechen intermediaries about a political solution and would consider negotiating with rebel leaders.

"With the war dragging on, at some point or another, Russia has to come to an agreement with the people it's fighting against," said Emil Pain, a former adviser to Boris Yeltsin who directs the Center for Ethno-Political Studies.

While the government shows no sign of calling off the military campaign, it has recently acknowledged the swapping of peace proposals through intermediaries with Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov, nominal leader of the rebel forces.

The Kremlin has said Maskhadov, who has been seeking a deal with Moscow, could qualify for amnesty. Putin said last week that he was prepared for talks with Maskhadov, but only if he gets the rebels to surrender.

Such a deal with Maskhadov would further split the already fractured rebel command and give Russia an important propaganda victory.

Still, it's not clear what negotiations with Maskhadov or any Chechen leader could achieve. Several Chechens are vying for the top spot in the republic, but none has the authority to enforce a cease-fire.

The talk of negotiations comes as Russian popular support for the war, initially very high, has begun to slowly erode, according to Natalia Laidinen, a researcher at the independent ROMIR polling agency.

The rebels have inflicted heavy casualties recently, and official figures put the death toll for federal troops at more than 1,800 since the military entered Chechnya in September, following weeks of airstrikes, after Chechnya-based Islamic militants invaded neighboring Dagestan in August. The rebels also are blamed in a series of apartment bombings in Russia that killed about 300 people in September.

In the most recent reported attack, Chechen rebels attacked a Russian squad from the front and rear on Wednesday, killing 10 federal troops and 17 rebels, Russian officials said. The firefight took place near Serzhen-Yurt, a town near the entrance of the key Vedeno Gorge that leads into the mountains. An ambush Sunday near the town killed at least 13 Russians.

If the rebels counterattack this spring, as some analysts predict, support could evaporate.

Moscow is under pressure from the West to end the war. With Putin seeking better ties, Moscow may want to avoid major new offensives in Chechnya.

Presiden Vladimir Putin, opening a Cabinet meeting Thursday, said that despite the Russian casualties, the rebels no longer had the strength to wage a prolonged war.

By Nick Wadhams