Russia At A Crossroads

The point of what has happened in Russia the past two weeks is that there has not been a power struggle, reports CBS News Moscow Correspondent Richard Threlkeld.

In the aftermath of an economic meltdown of this country, most of the powers-that-be, such as the Communist majority in the Duma, the business oligarchs who are close to the Kremlin, and large labor unions, are for a rare and almost unprecedented moment in recent Russian history, united.

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What's at stake is whether Russia will continue down the shaky path of real economic reform that had been started this summer or revert back to an old Soviet-style closed economy.

Russia is, in effect, wavering between remaining a part of the Western financial community or taking the hyperinflationary path of printing money to pay the back wages due to its workers.

In Russia today anything is possible, but virtually all analysts and political observers here believe Boris Yeltsin will have to resign at some point -- it's only a question of when.

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Boris Yeltsin

Of course, Yeltsin could always decide to tear up his resignation-in-advance, but he would be violating the agreement he has reached with the political establishment here, and with even his old political allies urging him to go, his days in office seem numbered.

Yeltsin, as president, has the command of the army and the nuclear weapons. However, real control is said to be concentrated now in Yeltsin's aides and in the office of prime-minister-designate Chernomyrdin, who is really running the country day-to-day.

The present defense minister, who will likely remain in the new cabinet, is said to be a very intelligent, reasonable man with close ties to military officials in America and the West. He has also been a big campaigner for reduction in nuclear weapons.

The Russian army has only once tried to intervene in politics, and that was almost 200 years ago. The present army is a tattered remnant of its former self, and its leaders have no interest in inheriting Russia's present economic mess.

Russian-American relations will remain the same, by and large. Chernomyrdin is Vice-President Al Gore's best Russian friend.

While Russia and the U.S., as independent nations, may disagree from time to time about specific issues, Russia will likely play a side role in foreign affairs until it sorts its economic and political mess out.

Meanwhile, the economic outlook in Russia does not look bright. As long as the new political coalition in Moscow sticks to its apparent decision to back away from economic reforms - which Western lenders have demanded -- the West will stop investing money in Russia.

The U.S. and Western powers said Thursday, in effect, that unless Russia is willing to take the painful political steps necessary for economic reform, Russia will be on its own in sorting out its problems.

Therefore, it's highly unlikely there will be money, trade or any foreign investment here, perhaps for years. The exception may be oil and gas, Russia's two big export earners, if the prices on those commodities begin to finally increase.

By Richard Threlkeld
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