Rocky Republican race heads to Florida
If the race for the Republican presidential nomination seemed turbulent so far, just wait until Florida.
The Sunshine State is a critical swing state. Its population is four times the size of South Carolina, with 10 major media markets. Its electorate is more diverse, opening up the discussion to broader topics like immigration and entitlement programs. And with much at stake, the candidates aren't backing off their attacks on one another; if anything, they're about to step it up a notch.
Fresh off his decisive, surprise victory in South Carolina, former Speaker Newt Gingrich could use a win in Florida to tamp down questions about his electability. Former Gov. Mitt Romney, meanwhile, needs to use his solid organization in Florida to win back the momentum he lost in South Carolina.
The candidates have just over a week to engage in intense campaigning before the state's January 31 primaries. That could give an advantage to a well-funded candidate like Romney.
The pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future has bought more than $3 million in television ads across Florida in just the last 10 days, the Orlando Sentinel reports, with most of the ads starting today. The candidate himself has spent more than $250,000 in just the Orlando market in recent days.
If Gingrich is to take his bid for the nomination past Florida, he'll need some cash to supplement his momentum. In his South Carolina victory speech, Gingrich appealed to his supporters: "If anyone here knows anyone in Florida, please contact them tomorrow. I need people to donate, to get involved. I don't have the kind of money" necessary to run a large-scale campaign in Florida.
In another advantage for Romney, more than 200,000 early votes have already been cast in the primary, Florida GOP Chairman Leonard Curry said on CNN Saturday night. If recent polls are any indication, the early voting probably helped the former governor. In the most recent poll out of Florida, conducted by CNN and Time from January 13-17, Romney held a solid 24-point lead, with 43 percent support compared to Gingrich's 18 percent and Rick Santorum's 19 percent.
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In spite of Romney's steady lead in Florida this month, there's still an opening for Gingrich. Back in late November and early December, when Gingrich was enjoying a surge nationally, polling figures were essentially reversed: It was the former House Speaker who held the double-digit lead.
Gingrich has the perfect openings in the coming week to pique Florida voters' interest once again: A debate Monday at the University of South Florida in Tampa, and another debate on Thursday in Jacksonville.
"The last two debates in Florida... I think's going to be critical in voters making up their minds," Curry said on CNN. "I expect Florida to remain competitive and volatile right up to the last debate."
Gingrich proved in South Carolina that his debate performances can be game-changing. He won standing ovations from both debates in the Palmetto State, and according to CBS News' exit polling, 65 percent of primary voters said the debates were one of the most important factors in deciding whom to support. Among those who thought the debates were important to their decision, a whopping 50 percent of voters preferred Gingrich while only 23 percent preferred Romney.
Florida is a closed primary, meaning only registered Republicans can participate. At the same time, the electorate includes more Hispanics and seniors, possibly leaving the candidates open to tough questions on issues like the Dream Act or Medicare reform. Romney will almost certainly continue to slam Gingrich for criticizing the House GOP's plan for Medicare reform.
"I do think that conservative values do play an enormous role and I think the Speaker has some explaining to do for... calling the Paul Ryan plan 'right wing social engineering,'" Romney said today on Fox News Sunday. "You're going to look at his record and say, 'Well, he is not so conservative, as a reliable conservative leader, as people might have imagined.'"
While Romney has largely let his surrogates and the super PAC that supports him attack his opponents so far, he signaled on Fox that he's ready to engage in those attacks himself. He told Fox News host Chris Wallace there's "no question" he's going to make Gingrich's character a campaign issue.
How Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary
Where does Mitt Romney go from here?
Ron Paul gears up for the long haul
Santorum vows to soldier on after 3rd place finish in S.C.
"Leadership is the key attribute that people should look for in considering a president," Romney said. "And character is a big part of leadership, as is vision, sobriety, steadiness. These are attributes which I think people want to see in their candidate."
Romney's task of taking down Gingrich is all the more challenging now that Gingrich has built up more credibility in South Carolina. On CBS' "Face the Nation" today, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina stopped short of endorsing Gingrich, but allowed that not only has Gingrich "changed a lot in a positive way," but that he's proved to the American people he can go toe-to-toe with President Obama in 2012.
"Newt not only won the debates," Graham said. "He convinced people that he could beat Barack Obama... electability was the issue before the South Carolina primary, during the primary and on voting day. Newt won."
Meanwhile, both Gingrich and Romney will have to fend off attacks from Rick Santorum, who is heading to Florida after placing third in South Carolina. Today on ABC's "This Week," Santorum said the choice between Gingrich and Romney amounted to "a choice between a moderate and an erratic conservative, someone who on a lot of the major issues has been just wrong."
Rep. Ron Paul, meanwhile, is looking past Florida to states where his prospects are stronger - namely, caucus states like Nevada and Maine. A candidate needs to win 1,144 delegates to earn the presidential nomination, and Paul could continue to rack up delegates and significantly influence the nominating process.
