Reading The Greenspan Tea Leaves

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who tried to sound warnings about "irrational exuberance" long before the stock market bubble burst, stuck to his no-frills investment strategy during last year's recession.

His financial disclosure report, released on Monday, showed that the Fed chairman, who can send markets soaring or plunging with a few well chosen words, is still avoiding stocks for the safety of Treasury securities and money market accounts.

The value of Greenspan's holdings, given only in broad ranges in the disclosure report, totaled between $3 million and $6.2 million last year. The bottom range stayed about the same as in 2000 although the top was down from the 2000 report, which put the upper boundary of Greenspan's holdings at $9.6 million.

As Fed chairman, Greenspan has preferred to keep all of his holdings in Treasury securities, considered the world's safest investment, and money market accounts to avoid any appearance of conflict which might be raised by holding stocks in individual companies.

Greenspan can exercises significant power over the course of the economy through the Fed's ability to raise and lower short-term interest rates. The Fed pushes rates lower to battle economic weakness and increases interest rates to slow growth at times when inflation threatens to get out of control.

In December 1996, Greenspan sent markets around the world plunging by asking whether investors might be in the grip of "irrational exuberance." Wall Street recovered quickly, however, and investors kept pushing stocks to record levels until the spring of 2000, when the bubble in high-tech stocks burst.

Greenspan's four largest investments, each valued at between $500,001 and $1 million, were Treasury bills, maturing at different times, and held with the investment firm of CIBC Oppenheimer Corp.

His disclosure form showed that all of his holdings provided him with investment income last year of between $106,000 and $309,000. The income amounts, like the assets, are reported only in broad ranges.

By contrast, Greenspan's wife, NBC newswoman Andrea Mitchell, did hold investments in stocks. Her assets were valued at between $1.1 million and $2.6 million.

Her largest asset listed was her 401 (k) pension plan, valued at between $500,001 and $1 million, at General Electric, the parent company of NBC.

Her largest stock investment was in Abbott Laboratories, valued at between $250,001 and $500,000. Mitchell also held stock in Kimberly Clark Corp., Estee Lauder, H.J. Heinze Co. and McDonalds Corp.

The disclosure form showed that Mitchell earned $103,500 for various speeches last year to such groups as the Jewish Federation of Houston, Washington and Jefferson College and the Girl Scouts. Her usual speaking fee was $15,000.

By Martin Crutsinger