Pure Horserace: What Now For Unity '08?
Today, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel announced that he won't seek re-election and will also not run for president. Hagel seemed on the verge of entering the GOP race in February -- he managed to get many members of the media to Omaha for an announcement -- only to then say he hadn't made up his mind. But this time, as the Omaha World-Herald reports, he's out of both the Senate and the race for the White House.
Hagel's decision may spawn a competitive Senate contest in one of America's most "red" states, thanks to the possibility that still-popular former Sen. Bob Kerrey, a Democrat, will seek a return to Washington. Nebraska actually has a surprising history of electing Democratic senators, which means the contest is instantly on the radar.
But Hagel's move also may have an impact on the presidential race, though not in either the Democratic or Republican parties. The Nebraskan, who is the only GOP senator to come out in outright opposition to the war in Iraq, was often proposed as a candidate for Unity '08, the Internet-based movement to draft a bipartisan, centrist presidential ticket for next year's elections.
And the buzz surrounding the man many thought would be Hagel's running mate on a Unity ticket, billionaire New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, seems to have cooled, probably motivated in part by Bloomberg's increasingly direct denials that he has his eyes on the presidency.
Meanwhile, two people considered moderates within their own parties -- Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani -- are the front-runners for their respective nominations. And there are other candidates, such as Barack Obama, who seem to appeal to broad swaths of the political spectrum. In this environment, it's fair to ask whether there's an ideological niche for Unity '08 and whether it'd be big enough to have an impact on the race, much less actually win.
A lot can change between now and when then nominees are decided. It's possible both parties could side with polarizing figures that would give a Unity ticket an opening. But right now, they seem to have a short bench of big-name candidates with which to fill it. -- David Miller
California's Still Dreamin'? It looks like that could be the case, if the state Republican Party's convention, held this past weekend, is any indication. California, the largest state in the union, was one of the first states to move its primary to Feb. 5 in the hope that it could exert greater influence on the presidential nominating process. But that would only be the case if the candidates paid attention to it -- and it looks like they aren't.
John McCain was the only candidate to address the convention, the Los Angeles Times reports. Even Rep. Duncan Hunter, a Californian whose presidential run has garnered little notice, decided to stay in Washington to prepare for today's testimony from Gen. David Petraeus. Other hopefuls were in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida and Texas.
The problem facing California is that campaigning there is so expensive, and so many other states are joining it in voting on Feb. 5, that its influence appears to have not significantly increased, while Iowa and New Hampshire remain supreme -- a textbook case of "the more things change, the more they stay the same." -- David Miller
Thompson Sounding Too Soft? Remarks made today by Fred Thompson may give pause to voters who hope the former Tennessee senator is the no-nonsense conservative they're looking for -- and they could provide an opening for Rudy Giuliani, who has advocated strong, aggressive stance in combating terrorism.
The Associated Press reports that, while speaking in Greenville, S.C., Thompson told a crowd that should al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden be captured, he should be allowed "due process" before being executed -- not exactly the kind of "red meat" Republican voters are looking for. One could argue that much intelligence would be gained by interrogating bin Laden, an idea few candidates in any party would disagree with. But by wrapping that idea in a legal term like "due process" -- something the Constitution guarantees only to U.S. citizens -- it could allow Thompson's GOP rivals to say he wants to afford legal rights to the person behind the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.
If any candidate will make that argument, it will probably be Giuliani, who not only has based much of his campaign on his views on national security and terrorism, but also may be looking for a way to convince conservatives that is far from flawless. -- David Miller
All Tied Up, Already: Is Thompson a serious threat to Giuliani's front-runner status? Definitely, at least according to a new poll out of South Carolina, where the former New York mayor holds a statistically insignificant lead over the "Law & Order" star.
The latest Clemson University Palmetto Poll shows Giuliani leading the field with 19 percent support. But Thompson is nearly tied with him at 18 percent. The numbers for both indicate there's still a lot of undecided voters in South Carolina, but for Thompson to be starting from the same position as Giuliani, despite entering the race only last week, shows he has some inherent appeal.
As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama by 10 percentage points. But here, too, is a significant qualifier: 40 percent of likely African-American voters say they're undecided. -- David Miller
Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By David Miller