Pure Horserace: The Palmetto Pulse

It's South Carolina week for Democrats in the presidential campaign, and that means we're sure to hear plenty about how the candidates are received by voters in that key primary state when they gather for their first big debate. A new survey by pollster John Zogby kicks off expectations, showing a relatively tight race among the three perceived front-runners.

In the Zogby poll of likely Democratic voters, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 33 percent to 26 percent, with John Edwards the only other candidate in double digits at 21 percent. Edwards, who was born in South Carolina and represented neighboring North Carolina in the U.S. Senate, won this contest in his 2004 presidential run but was quickly overrun by the momentum John Kerry brought out of his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Whether South Carolina will end up playing a more decisive role in 2008 remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that campaigns on both sides of the aisle are paying plenty of attention to the state. Most of the candidates have spent significant time there, and all eight announced Democrats are scheduled to appear at Thursday night's debate at South Carolina State University. On that same day, Republican John McCain will be stumping in the state as part of his official kick-off.

For Democrats, who have not carried the state in a presidential election in more than 30 years, South Carolina is a critical state for reasons other than its calendar position (slated for Jan. 29). With black voters expected to make up nearly half of the state's Democratic primary, it's a crucial opportunity for these candidates to demonstrate strength among one of their party's important constituencies.

That dynamic will be all the more important this year with Obama, perhaps the most viable African-American presidential candidate in history, and Clinton, whose husband is popular among black voters, both in the race. A recent WIS-TV survey showed the overall race tighter than the Zogby poll, with Clinton leading Obama by just one point among all voters, 24% to 23%. Among black voters, Clinton led Obama by a margin of 31% to 29%.

In recent cycles, the South Carolina primary has been nearly decisive for Republicans. Both George W. Bush and Bob Dole were able to win the state and recover from losses in New Hampshire. This time around, it may prove equally important in the Democratic race as well. —Vaughn Ververs

Beating The Rush: Bill Richardson occupies a peculiar position in the race for the Democratic nomination. He's got low poll numbers and was a distant fourth place in first-quarter fundraising among other Democrats. But he also has a compelling resume, a good presence on the stump and some expectations that he could be the race's breakout candidate.

Breaking out requires taking some risks, though, and that's exactly what Richardson is doing. On Monday, he became the first Democratic candidate to air ads in New Hampshire and Iowa (Republican Mitt Romney was first overall). As expected, one is a straightforward biographical piece, emphasizing Richardson's successes as New Mexico governor and his foreign policy experience. The second ad shows Richardson addressing the camera, talking about bipartisan outreach and ending the war in Iraq. The ad ends with Richardson using federally required language to take a stab at President Bush — "I approved this message because being stubborn isn't a foreign policy."

These early ads might be effective at helping introduce Richardson to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire who are unfamiliar with the western governor — especially before those voters become inundated with campaign commercials. But he still has a ways to go, especially in states where voters value candidates' handshakes and coffees over commercials. — David Miller

Unequaled On Equal Pay: African-American voters in South Carolina aren't the only important constituency for Clinton's campaign — she's paying plenty of attention to women voters as well. Today marks Equal Pay Day — aimed at bringing attention to gaps between men's and women's salaries — and Clinton is using it to highlight her work on women's issues.

The observance includes an endorsement from Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski and campaign events in New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada. Clinton's Web site has also added a wage gap calculator that allows women to input their salary and other information and learn how much a man with similar qualifications would make.

"It is high time we insisted that women receive equal pay for equal work in this country," Clinton said in a statement "We have dispelled any notion that women aren't up to the task, yet millions of capable women are still being underpaid solely because of their gender, and it's time to put a stop to it."

Highlighting the equal pay issue allows Clinton to continue to embrace her gender — a running theme of her campaign so far — while allowing for some hard advocacy on an issue that appeals to many women, even those beyond the Democratic base. It's a smart move — and as the only woman in the race, she's not likely to face attempts by others in the race to out-do her on this one. For example, Obama's campaign released a one-paragraph statement on the issue, stating in part, "for too many years, not only have women across America been undercompensated for their hard work, they have been undervalued." —David Miller

Newt In The Wings? Yesterday we talked about the "shadow campaign" former aides to Al Gore reportedly were working on — one to which Gore has disavowed any connection. It turns out that a group is also coalescing around another non-candidate, Republican Newt Gingrich. But in this case, The Politico reports, Gingrich is also on board.

Gingrich has added a pollster and a fundraiser to his political group, American Solutions for Winning the Future. Previously, the group had only one person on its payroll.

The organization is one of many so-called 527 groups, named after the section of the tax code that regulates them. By law, such groups are forbidden from advocating for a specific candidate. But nothing stops this organization from being a trial balloon that Gingrich can use to see how receptive Republican voters would be to his candidacy.

Gingrich has always said he will decide in September whether he's going to run — that's just over four months away, a perfect amount of time to conduct a few polls and line up a decent network of donors. But surely that's just a coincidence, right? —David Miller

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