Pure Horserace: Palmetto State Push

The South Carolina Republican Party's announcement that it's moving its primary to Jan. 19 is expected to set off a domino effect that could result in the first nominating contest of the 2008 presidential race happening in 2007. This scenario, once considered absurd, now has a solid chance of becoming reality. Even if it doesn't, the Iowa Caucuses will happen, at the latest, only days after the new year.

Katon Dawson, chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, announced today that he was making the move to "preserve the integrity of the process — or what's left of the integrity of the process." Some would say there isn't much left: With a process that starts so early and ends so quickly — the dozens of states voting on Feb. 5 should decide both parties' nominees — people are given very little time to seriously examine the field.

However, for all the complaints about this process being bad for democracy, we are stuck with this system until at least 2012, which allows us to focus on a more relevant question: What effect will South Carolina's move have on other early-voting states and the candidates?

According to the Quad City Times, Iowa Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat, has pledged that Iowa will remain ahead of both South Carolina and New Hampshire, which appears to be on board with the South Carolina GOP's move. In an Associated Press report, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Ray Hoffmann said his group won't set a firm date until New Hampshire does. That could happen next month.

"There's nothing I can do or even think about until I know what New Hampshire is going to do," Hoffmann said. "As far as I'm concerned, we are going to be No. 1 in the nation. As far as a date, I don't know yet."

But the laws in Iowa and New Hampshire set certain constraints. New Hampshire requires its primary to be held at least seven days before another contest — in this case, Jan. 12, a Saturday. But given New Hampshire's tradition of Tuesday elections, it's possible the primary will be set for Jan. 8. Iowa law requires the caucuses to come eight days before another nominating contest, which would mean New Year's Eve under the above scenario.

However, things could shake out differently, especially if New Hampshire is more flexible (our partners at The Politico say that's the case). Regardless, the Iowa caucuses may end up so close to Christmas that their perceived importance could be reduced — even Iowans take time off from politics for the holidays. But much of this depends on the state of the race and the remaining candidates by time late December rolls around.

There's also the possibility that all of the above states will lose many of their delegates to the national conventions for moving their contests earlier, due to rules in both parties. That's why the South Carolina Democratic Party is staying put with a Jan. 29 primary, executive director Joe Werner told CBSNews.com. "They have broken the rules, but the penalties for that are very severe. You lose at least 50 percent of your delegates," he said. "It really has changed the game in terms of delegate selection."

But it's hard to deny that campaigns, especially those with limited resources, are going to have a hard time planning where and when to spend their money until all of this gets settled — and it won't until New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner sets a primary date this fall. Some candidates, namely Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, have so much money available that they can prepare for every scenario. But John Edwards, who has placed all of his presidential hopes on getting a bounce from a win in Iowa, doesn't have that luxury. Neither do any of the other second-tier hopefuls in either party. Nor do Fred Thompson and, possibly, Newt Gingrich, who haven't even formally entered the race yet.

Presidential campaigns hate uncertainty — and they now have plenty of it to deal with. In some ways, seeing which ones deal with it best could be a good way to separate the real players from the also-rans. Unfortunately, with both parties' candidate fields already separated into well-defined tiers, they aren't all starting from the same place. For those already at the front of the pack, their status may have just become a little more secure. — David Miller

Stepping It Up A Notch: Iowans worried that their state will lose its prominence in the '08 race may be able to seek some solace from an item in today's Des Moines Register, which reports that former Sen. Fred Thompson will inch even closer to being a declared candidate with a visit to Iowa on Aug. 17. The swing includes a stop at the Iowa State Fair, a key political opportunity for both parties.

Thompson will visit the state post-straw poll, meaning that the GOP field may have thinned substantially by time he gets there. There will be a good number of Iowans who will have seen their preferred candidate exit from the race — and when Thompson arrives, they'll probably be looking for someone new. The "Law & Order" star is already at 13 percent support in at least one Iowa poll. If he picks up the support of many of those who've been left without a candidate, he could suddenly find himself in a very good place before he even officially kicks off his campaign — an event now expected in early September. — David Miller

Rainbow Warriors: That six Democratic presidential candidates will gather tonight for yet another candidate forum is hardly news. That they are doing so before a gay rights advocacy group and on a gay-oriented cable channel certainly is.

All the Democratic candidates except Joe Biden and Chris Dodd will appear at a forum hosted by the Human Rights Campaign and televised on the Logo network to discuss issues important to the gay community, marking the first time such an event has ever taken place in a presidential contest.

It's a far cry from the 2004 election, in which Democratic candidates nervously tip-toed around the issue of gay marriage most of the time — partly out of fear that the issue would cost swing votes in the general election. But that doesn't mean those concerns have disappeared entirely. The major candidates — Clinton, Obama and Edwards — say they oppose gay marriage but support civil unions but are finding other ways to appeal to the gay community. Elizabeth Edwards broke from her husband in a very public way to support gay marriage, for example. — Vaughn Ververs

Jumping The Shark: Now it's getting ridiculous. Sure, we all tittered and gawked when Obama Girl exploded onto the scene. And we chuckled when Giuliani Girl and Obama Girl engaged in a sing-off about their favorite candidates. But isn't an attack ad by the new Romney Girls taking things a little too far?

The Romney Girls (they're identical triplets) attack Obama Girl in a new video for flip-flopping about who owns her affections, but it's pretty clear that the real target is Romney himself. According to the barelypolitical.com Web site that produces these videos, one of Romney's "girls" likes the GOP candidate "based on what he stood for in the 1980s," another because of "what he stood for in the 1990s" and the third for "what people tell him he should stand for today." Considering that Romney has fought the flip-flop tag, the implication is hard to miss.

Aside from that though, the genre is already getting a little old, isn't it? — Vaughn Ververs

Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

By David Miller and Vaughn Ververs