Pure Horserace: McCain's Rough Road

Ever since John McCain's campaign shakeup started two weeks ago, we've speculated that the strategy would focus on winning the inexpensive states that kick off the Republican nominating process: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Today, a report by The Politico reveals his campaign is doing exactly that.

In a leaked memo, named "Road to Victory 2008," the McCain campaign says it will hone a message based on the senator's experience and conservatism while promoting his plans to reform and restore trust in government. The memo also gives a state-by-state breakdown of McCain's strengths in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina, noting that the winner of every contested GOP nomination fight since 1980 has won South Carolina, plus either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The nagging question, of course, is how does McCain pay for this effort. The campaign has already shed a large number of staff members, but it looks like McCain plans to get by through, in the memo's words, "living off the land," or participating in more sponsored events and free media opportunities, like debates.

Though this came from what is billed as a campaign memo, it reads very much like a press release, full of positive spin, with no mention of McCain's weaknesses (such as his stance on immigration) and very little discussion of his opponents' strengths. Rudy Giuliani is dismissed for either not spending much time in Iowa and New Hampshire, or "looking past" South Carolina. Mitt Romney is accused of trying to "buy" a victory in the Iowa caucuses. Fred Thompson is mentioned for having a lack of organization. Mentions of Romney's money, Giuliani's poll numbers and Thompson's allure are nowhere to be found.

But the point of the memo may not be to flesh out a fully-detailed plan for a McCain comeback over three people who are all better positioned. What it does try to show is that McCain's campaign is not adrift — it is organized and has a concrete plan for going forward, and that after two weeks of upheaval, things have finally settled down.

It's the kind of message that could soothe the worries of some donors and supporters who may have considered bailing on the former front-runner. But in case that's not enough, another leaked document seeks to link McCain to Republican icon Ronald Reagan. It details how Reagan came back from a bad summer in 1979 to eventually win the party's nomination. The tone of the message is clearly inspirational — perhaps McCain wants to convince his supporters that electing him will be the equivalent of winning one more for the Gipper. — David Miller

On A More Serious Note: Bill Richardson made his mark on the advertising aspect of this presidential cycle early on with a series of humorous ads introducing himself to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Richardson is back on the air in both states, but with a much more serious message.

In his latest ad, Richardson takes on his primary opponents — at least those serving in the United States Senate, a group that just so happens to include the two Democratic front-runners. Coming on the heels of the all-night Senate debate that resulted in the procedural defeat of a proposal to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq, Richardson is calling for the end to the war in his latest ad.

While all the Democratic candidates support an end to the war, many party activists are frustrated with the ability of a Dem-led Congress to force President Bush's hand. This week, Republicans in the Senate were able to filibuster Democrats, but legislative rules on cloture are little comfort to those seeking an immediate end to the war. Richardson hits on that sentiment with the closing line of his speech, saying, "I approved this message because Congress has to stand up to this president. We need to get all of our troops out of Iraq."

Hillary Clinton and other Senate Democrats running for president have gone to lengths to try and make primary voters understand that without a 60-vote margin, which would have to include a fair number of Republicans, there is little Congress can do to stop the war. In 2004, of course, John Kerry also tried hard to explain what he meant when he said he voted for the $80 billion before he voted against it. This is why senators rarely make it to the White House these days.

Richardson, the only governor in the Democratic field, has been on the upswing of late. He raised a hefty $7 million during the second quarter of this year, closing in on John Edwards, who took in about $9 million over the same period. And in a CNN/WMUR poll this week, Richardson registered in third place for the very first time, although still far behind Clinton and Barack Obama. — Vaughn Ververs

Scaling Pikes Peak: Mitt Romney may be succeeding in winning some fans in one of the nation's largest bastions of social conservatism. Romney spoke to a Lincoln Day Dinner for the El Paso County Republicans in Colorado Springs — home to many evangelical groups, including the influential Focus on the Family.

In the speech, Romney talked tax cuts and national security but also focused on his theme of cleaning up the culture. He pledged to punish those who sell adult-themed video games to minors and suggested that Internet predators be forced to wear electronic tracking devices for the rest of their lives.

One of the big questions surrounding Romney's campaign has been how evangelicals, who make up a large block of the GOP electorate, would receive the Mormon candidate. According to the Colorado Springs link=http://www.gazette.com/articles/romney_24965___article.html/state_colorado.html>Gazette, at least, the answer is — enthusiastically. "Romney talk may change El Paso minds," the paper's headline today reads, followed with a story full of quotes like this from one local GOP activist: "God, he sounds like Ronald Reagan." The campaign couldn't have written it better. — Vaughn Ververs

Armstrong's Challenge: Lance Armstrong is known as much for his seven Tour de France wins as he is his battle against cancer, and now he's trying to leverage that fame and entice the presidential candidates to attend forums where they'll be asked to discuss their plans for fighting cancer should they win the White House.

According to The Associated Press, five candidates have accepted Armstrong's invitation to appear at the forums, one for each party, in late August. They include Democrats Bill Richardson and John Edwards, whose wife, Elizabeth, has cancer, and Republicans Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee.

"For me personally, it's just to make sure that whatever candidates we have now, and then ultimately the two who want to be president, discuss the No. 1 killer in this country, just like they would discuss war or terror or taxes," Armstrong said in a video posted online.

There's no word yet from the top tier candidates in either party, though Armstrong isn't asking them to travel too far off the beaten path: The forums will be held in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. — David Miller

Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

By David Miller and Vaughn Ververs