Pure Horserace: Finding Religion

Everything seems to be happening earlier in this election, from the kick-offs to the fundraising. And now, thanks to a recent glut of news stories, you can add the examination of candidates' religion to that list.

Thanks to Republican Mitt Romney, religion has already been a background issue in the presidential race, right from the start. And it's Romney, a Mormon, who's in the news today after a spat with the Rev. Al Sharpton, the outspoken activist and a former Democratic presidential candidate himself.

During a Monday debate with atheist author Christopher Hitchens, Sharpton said, "As for the one Mormon running for office, those who really believe in God will defeat him anyways, so don't worry about that; that's a temporary situation," according to an Associated Press report.

Though Sharpton says he wasn't claiming Romney and other Mormons don't truly believe in God, Romney took offense to the remark, describing Sharpton's words as "bigoted."

Criticizing a noted liberal like Sharpton is easy for any Republican — sparring with the pope is another matter. Rudy Giuliani, a Catholic, is declining to do so after Pope Benedict XVI, during a tour of Latin America, said Mexican politicians who favor abortion rights, as Giuliani does, should lose the right to Communion and risk excommunication.

"I don't get into debates with the pope," Giuliani said, according to Newsday. "Issues like that for me are between me and my confessor. ... I'm a Catholic and that's the way I resolve those issues, personally and privately."

Republicans aren't the only ones facing questions about their faith — Democrat Barack Obama has had to explain his connection to his church's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., who critics say uses the pulpit to promote racist views.

And the topic isn't likely to go away any time soon. Not with Romney in the race. Not with Giuliani continually facing questions on abortion. Not with Obama trying to appeal to religious voters while dealing with questions about his own church. And not with a race for the Republican nomination where none of the top candidates have an obvious connection to the evangelical community.

Even if two mainline protestants — say, Hillary Clinton and John McCain — end up winning their parties' nominations, expect religion to play a crucial role in this race. Evangelical voters once formed the core of President Bush's base, but polls and the 2006 elections indicate they're more flexible than in 2004. If the Republican nominee isn't an evangelical Christian, Democrats might have an opportunity to win some of them over on pocketbook issues and the war in Iraq. — David Miller

The Big Gamble: All politics is local, the saying goes, unless, of course, they're not. It's perhaps the biggest question for campaign strategists and crystal-ball gazers heading into the 2008 primary season: Will the nomination be won in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire or in a near-national primary in huge population centers such as California and Florida?

Historically speaking, the smart money remains firmly on those coffee klatches and community meetings in places like Council Bluffs, Iowa, and Amherst, New Hampshire. But with massive numbers of delegates at stake just weeks after those states vote, advertising budgets and travel schedules must take Los Angeles and Orlando into account as well.

So far, the emphasis for the candidates remains primarily fixed on those smaller early states. South Carolina, which is slated before the Feb. 5 mega-primary, has already hosted one major Democratic debate and is welcoming Republicans to the state next week. Nobody is skipping these events so far and nobody is trying to bypass Iowa or New Hampshire either. But there are signs that at least one campaign is eyeing those larger states as the bigger prizes.

The New York Times reports today that Rudy Giuliani is seeking to put to rest the attention being paid to his fuzzy abortion position by firmly portraying himself as a supporter of abortion rights. It's an approach that may harm his campaign among social conservatives in those smaller states, particularly Iowa, but may help in larger states such as California and the article notes his campaign aides are looking for wins in those later contests to lock up the nomination.

It's a gamble. Voters in Des Moines and Manchester are well aware of their traditional place in the process and are more likely to be aware of strategic nuances like where the candidates are spending their money and time. Past experience tells us that candidates who go all-out in those states — even if they lose one — are far more likely to win the nomination that those who skip them or pay scant attention. But this is no ordinary campaign and no ordinary calendar. Ready to go all in? — Vaughn Ververs

Don't Look Now: A lot of New Yorkers have been wondering lately about New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's political future and most of the discussion has revolved around a possible run for governor. Bloomberg quickly tried to shoot down such speculation and has also been shoving aside talk of an independent presidential bid. But something might be up — Bloomberg yesterday announced the revitalization of his old — Vaughn VerversEditor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller