Pure Horserace: A High-Stakes Night
Orangeburg, S.C. — Presidential debates taking place eight full months before anyone casts a vote usually do not rise to the level of a potential make-or-break moment. But 2008 is shaping up to be a very unusual campaign, as the hype surrounding tonight's Democratic debate demonstrates.
On the campus of South Carolina State University, the eight formally announced Democratic presidential candidates will meet on the same stage for the first time to debate the issues and demonstrate — to voters in this key early state and nationally — that they have what it takes to carry their party's banner into the White House.
With so much attention focused on the race so early, there is more at stake than simply jockeying for position in a crowded field. According to the South Carolina Democratic Party, more than 300 news credentials have been issued to media representatives from around the nation — and the world. On the sidewalks of campus, students have been replaced by satellite trucks, media tents and cameras.
It remains unclear how many times these candidates will gather together for debates this year. The Democratic National Committee has said it will sanction six debates, with tonight's being the first. The remaining "official" debates have not yet been identified — but despite a flood of offers, the campaigns have resisted attempts to up the total. If the DNC remains successful at limiting these events, it could mean tonight's would take on even more importance.
Everyone, it seems, will be watching, reading or hearing about what happens on stage this evening. One mistake, slip, flub or ill-timed remark may not spell the end of anyone's campaign, but these candidates are under unusual pressure this early in the process. For some of these candidates, the debate provides a way for them to re-introduce themselves to an already-familiar audience. For others, it offers a chance to simply introduce themselves. In both cases, there is as much risk involved as opportunity.
Keep you mouse right here on Pure Horserace and CBSNews.com for complete coverage of the South Carolina Democratic debate. — Vaughn Ververs
Everyone's Got A Story To Tell: Avoiding mistakes is the top priority for every Democratic candidate, especially the top tier. But all the candidates have goals and pitfalls unique to them, as well.
• Hillary Clinton: Once the overwhelming favorite to win her party's nomination, Sen. Clinton has recently found herself in a fierce competition with Barack Obama for that title. In measurable terms — fund-raising and polls — she remains at the top, but with a small margin for error. As the only woman in the race, and with her celebrity-level presence, Clinton needs to demonstrate a combination of policy chops and an ability to connect.
Clinton has been criticized for her perceived inability to reach voters on the kind of one-to-one level for which her husband was famous. Fair or not, she would be well-served if she could break out of character without losing her grasp of policy details. Her candidacy is based largely on experience and electability, and Clinton has thus far mostly resisted the temptation to pander to specific Democratic interests too much. Look for more of that tone tonight. Clinton needs to avoid looking reactive to anyone else on stage — especially Obama.
• Barack Obama: His is the fresh and exciting face in the presidential field. Obama has risen from an obscure Illinois state senator to a household name in a span of four short years, and he has caught the fancy of powerbrokers like Hollywood mogul David Geffen and talk-show mogul Oprah Winfrey. Obama appears to be the most serious African-American ever to seek the presidency and speaks in language reminiscent of Bobby Kennedy.
However, Obama will likely need to raise the volume on his soft-spoken stump speech a little for this event. Questions about his depth of understanding of the issues in this campaign have been raised, and this would be the perfect time to begin answering them. Like Clinton, his mere presence on the stage will be a campaign advertisement — but one voters are already familiar with.
He needs to enlarge his argument and put some meat on the bones of his potentially historic candidacy. As an outspoken critic of negative campaigning, Obama must also find ways to walk the line of criticism — of both his primary opponents and Republicans — without sounding like the kind of politics he decries.
• John Edwards: His victory in this state's 2004 primary may well have secured him the vice presidential nomination last time around. But this is a very different race — and a very different Edwards. He, more than perhaps anyone else in the race, has courted the various constituencies that make up the Democratic primary electorate in direct ways — particularly labor and anti-war activists.
In keeping with that strategy, Edwards needs to be the most aggressive of the top three candidates. His appeal is aimed at the base of the party, and he'll likely continue to hammer away at themes others will be reluctant to parrot. If Clinton has one eye on the general election, Edwards has both firmly fixed on the primaries.
The risk for Edwards is sounding overly strident in his opposition to the war in Iraq or health care or jobs. His "two Americas" approach has been criticized for sounding too populist for the overall American electorate — something that has hampered Democrats in the past two elections. Look for him to try and put his opponents on the spot tonight.
• Bill Richardson: By the time the candidates exit the stage, you can be pretty sure everyone will know that Richardson is the only governor in this race. Executive experience has been nearly unbeatable when it comes to reaching the Oval Office in recent decades, and this second-term governor of New Mexico is sure to talk up his achievements in that area.
Richardson perhaps has the biggest chance to make a move here because of that experience — and because he's held several other high positions as well: Cabinet secretary, U.N. Ambassador and global trouble-shooter. All that experience is sometimes accompanied by a tendency to overstate the resume, and reporters will be quick to jump on any embellishments.
• Joe Biden: The Delaware senator has spent so much time in this state already that it wouldn't be surprising if he has a southern accent in his opening remarks tonight. Biden has invested a lot of time courting South Carolina voters with an eye toward a post-Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada upset. Looking at the last election, when candidates like John Kerry largely stayed away from the state, it wouldn't be a bad strategy. Unfortunately for him, everyone's paying attention to it this time around.
Biden arguably brings the heftiest foreign policy portfolio to this field. He is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, so look for him to demonstrate his knowledge of Iraq and the war on terror. As his ill-advised remark about the "articulate" ability of Obama on the week of his official announcement proved, Biden also has a habit of stepping on his own verbal feet. He'll need to curb that instinct without diminishing his arguments if he wants to make a splash here.
• Chris Dodd: Humor is always important in these events, and Dodd can at times excel at hitting the right tone for the moment. He brings a wealth of Senate experience into the field — but he's hardly alone in that respect, standing next to Biden. Dodd needs to express a reason why his party should choose him as its nominee, and that's not going to be easy in this group. One thing to look for: It's been said that Dodd speaks Spanish better than anyone else, including Richardson, so we could hear a little of that from him tonight.
• Dennis Kucinich: Fresh off launching his crusade to impeach Vice President Cheney, the Ohio representative comes to the debate as a familiar figure to many Democrats. His anti-war push during the 2004 campaign won him plaudits from many liberals in the party, but his welcome seems to have worn out in an atmosphere in which the party is seeking a winner in 2008.
• Mike Gravel: Tonight is the biggest stage this former Alaska senator has been on — probably ever. Expect him to talk a lot about his idea to basically legislate through a national referendum and attack the Washington power structure. Don't expect a lot to come of all that.
Debating The Dollars: Hosting a presidential debate is no small task, especially for a relatively small town like Orangeburg. The event draws in hundreds of journalists, campaign workers and other politically-engaged types. But, according to the South Carolina Democratic Party, the effort is worth it. How much exactly? Try $30 million, thanks to all those people who will need hotels and meals during their stay.
Such statistics have always proven difficult to verify — just ask any city that has hosted a party convention or the Olympics. Boosters always say small businesses will benefit to win public support for an event coming to town, but restaurants end up deserted as events are catered and hotel rooms remain vacant as campaign workers stay in the houses of volunteers. Already today, The Times and Democrat in Orangeburg has quoted one restaurant owner saying no one is "flocking in to eat."
But unlike those major cities that host conventions, at least Orangeburg, located in the middle of the state, can now say it's been put on the map — which could be worth a few dollars down the road. — David Miller
Meanwhile, Outside South Carolina: It's like Christmas morning for Democrats. With the Justice Department is investigating whether Karl Rove violated the law by pushing for those eight U.S. Attorneys to get fired, and at least five GOP congressmen in ethics trouble, and the Jack Abramoff investigation is inching closer to Tom DeLay, Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., gave a speech today kicking off a Democratic spring offensive against "Republican corruption."
Emanuel wants to party like it's 2006 — when he helped lead his party to taking over the House — and keep that old "culture of corruption" label permanently pinned to the GOP lapel. "Not since the days of Watergate … have we seen such abuses … It's a pattern of political appointees who put partisan interests ahead of country," he said."
The message to voters is clear: Keep supporting the Democrats so that an unpopular White House is held "accountable." The administration was quick to respond. Spokeswoman Dana Perino likened the new rhetoric to Hillary Clinton's "vast right-wing conspiracy." They want to party like it's 1999. — Brian Goldsmith
Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs, David Miller and Brian Goldsmith