Politics

Pure Horserace: A Few Fundraising Truths

By David Miller

April 16, 2007 / 3:32 PM EDT / CBS

Trying to decide who the real winner of the first quarter presidential money race is a lot like reading TV ratings: Each contender is emphasizing a different number and it's a matter of debate which one is most important.

Hillary Clinton edged out Barack Obama for most money raised overall, but Obama beat her in contributions for the primary campaign by about $6 million. On the other hand, Clinton also ended the quarter with more cash on hand. But on the other hand, Obama had nearly twice the donors Clinton did.

But one thing that can be said objectively, without qualification, is that Obama and Clinton did very well, and appear pretty well-off for future fundraising quarters. Here are some other truths that can be gleaned from the full first-quarter filings:

John McCain's campaign is burning through what little cash it has.

The man who was once the Republican front-runner and had an "air of inevitability" is now falling in the polls and trying to get his campaign back on track with a series of policy speeches (more on that below). McCain reported raising only $13 million, the smallest total of the six major candidates. He ended March with just over $5 million on hand, a number that would have been even smaller had he not incurred $1.8 million in debt. McCain entered the second quarter with less money in the bank than second-tier Democrat Chris Dodd and so far has little to show for it.

Hillary Clinton is the choice of Washington insiders [corrected].

The District of Columbia has a population of just more than half a million, but it showed up high on the list of places where Clinton's money came from. Correction: This story previously stated that the Clinton campaign raised $3.5 million from the nation's capital but the Clinton campaign informs CBSNews.com the actual D.C. total is $1.4 million. The reason for the confusion: $2.1 million in unitemized, small donations with no zip code were included in the D.C. total.

Clinton has some confident supporters.

She was the only candidate to raise more than $1 million ear-marked for the general election. In fact, she raised almost $7 million in general elections funds, more than Bill Richardson raised overall. Apparently all those insiders think they know how the primaries will play out.

Utah likes Mitt.

He's only spent a few of his years in Utah, but they were obviously productive. Romney raised $2.8 million from donors in Utah, which not only has a large Mormon population, but is also grateful to Romney for the job he did in turning around the 2002 Winter Olympics. Like McCain, Romney spent at a high rate in the opening quarter. Though he raised more than $20 million, he had less than $12 million on hand at the quarter's close.

There's a lot of Republican money still out there.

Clinton and Obama are both sucking up a lot of donations, big and small, from Democratic donors, and it shows in their totals. The numbers posted by Romney, McCain and Rudy Giuliani, though, are less dramatic, especially since Romney appears to be tapping into a network of donors that might not be able to keep giving throughout the cycle. It's yet another sign that the Republican base hasn't galvanized around one candidate (much less two, as the Democrats have). That opening for Fred Thompson (or someone else) seems to get wider by the day. Which leads us to …

Still Looking For Mr. (Or Mrs.) Right? While GOP and media circles have been buzzing for weeks over the potential entry of Fred Thompson into the presidential race, a new CBS News poll suggests there is less of a groundswell among primary voters than the hype might suggest. Despite having served in the U.S. Senate and a successful acting career, Thompson remains unknown to much of his own party.

Among self-described GOP primary voters, 79 percent said they were either unsure about their opinion about him or didn't know enough to have an opinion. Just 21 percent said they viewed him favorably, and none were unfavorable.

There is clearly a hunger among Republicans for new additions to the field. Just 35 percent of GOP primary voters said they were satisfied with their current choices and 61 percent want more. Most of the talk recently has centered on Thompson, who has been the subject of an effort spearheaded by elected officials and party fixtures in Tennessee and Washington, D.C. But the poll suggests that excitement has yet to filter down to the grass roots of the party.

Another frequently mentioned addition is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has said he will make a decision sometime later this year about a possible entrance into the race. While primary voters might be unfamiliar with Thompson, he at least has room to grow. Republicans know Gingrich and a full 25 percent said they have an unfavorable view of him and just 33 percent see him favorably.

Where does it all leave us? Judging by this poll (and it is just one snapshot in time), there's plenty of room for a knight in shining armor to ride in and sweep the party off its feet. But, of the two apparently waiting in the wings, one is unknown and the other carried some significant baggage. Bottom line — there's room for someone else. The question is, who?

Return Of The Maverick: Remember the John McCain even a Democrat could love? The one who triumphantly rode The Straight Talk Express to a New Hampshire victory in 2000? Well, if today's speech by McCain is any indication, he's trying to make a return to form after a bad few weeks for his campaign.

Speaking before The Economic Club of Memphis in Tennessee, McCain outlined the fiscal policies he would pursue as president, including elimination of deficits and simplification of the tax code — typical fare, especially for a Republican. But he also went a step further, saying he would veto any bill containing "pork barrel" spending.

McCain has bona fides on this issue: He's been known for reading off, and sarcastically commenting on, lists of odd spending projects tucked into various spending bills. Still, it would be interesting to see McCain act on this promise if elected president, because, if the past few years have been any guide, he would have to veto almost every spending bill passed by Congress. We're guessing members of the Appropriations committees in the House and Senate won't be jumping to endorse McCain just yet.

Ready To Serve: Speaking in California on Sunday, former President Clinton said he's ready to serve in any capacity should his wife be elected president, the Associated Press reports.

"People ask me all the time what I would do if Hillary was elected president, and I say — I tell the truth — I'll do whatever I'm asked to," he said.

But put all that "Secretary of State Clinton" talk to rest. The former president pointed out that the law forbids presidents from appointing immediate family members to Cabinet posts.

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By David Miller