Power With A Latino Accent

They're being called the new soccer moms. As the number of Latinos in the U.S. grows by leaps and bounds, so does their influence and voting power. So it's no surprise Republicans have made winning over this traditionally Democratic constituency a top priority this campaign season.

For the first time since 1984, the Republican National Committee is producing television ads aimed at Hispanic voters, spending as much as $10 million in the process. And a Spanish-language ad produced by the George W. Bush campaign will begin running in Arizona this week, two weeks before the Republican primary there.

Lionel Sosa, a marketing executive who produces ads for the GOP, says the Republicans' appeal to Hispanics is different from years past, when "nobody thought about the Latino vote until a month before the general election."

Sosa says that unlike the Democrats' ads, which "foster low expectations and a victim mentality" among Hispanics, his ads portray them as "heroes."

Democrats counter that their own ads focus on a record of improving the lives of Hispanics. One Clinton-Gore adman says Republicans appeal more to voters hearts than their heads. "If you had their track record," says Armando Gutierrez, "I don't think you'd want Hispanics voting according to their head either."

Navarrete recommends both parties focus on issues over imagery. "We just can't be marketed to," she says. The candidates "must have the substance and the agenda to back it up."

To hone their message, the RNC commissioned an extensive national survey last fall to test Latino attitudes. The results, they say, were encouraging: While 45 percent of Hispanics consider themselves strongly Democratic, a quarter of Hispanics identify themselves as independents a sizeable swing vote.

The RNC did not release complete results of the poll, but the findings correspond with a Battleground 2000 poll conducted in January by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic strategist Celinda Lake. That poll also showed Hispanics were more inclined to vote for a Democrat when asked to consider congressional candidates.

Republicans realize it will take time to change generations of voting habits. But they see a clear opportunity with the party's presidential front-runner. The Spanish-speaking Bush garnerd 49 percent of the Hispanic vote in his re-election campaign for Texas governor.

But political scientist Robert Stein, who researches Hispanic voting trends, says it's a mistake to use Bush's success with Latino voters in Texas as a yardstick of his viability in other states, especially in delegate-rich California.

"Latinos in California and Texas are very different," says Stein.

From his office at Rice University in Houston, Stein rattles off a list of reasons why Hispanics in Texas are much more likely to vote independently: They are better integrated and register to vote in higher numbers; they hold more elected offices in proportion to their California counterparts, and they benefit from the state's long trade relationship with Mexico. Furthermore, says Stein, Bush faced a weak Democratic opponent in his 1998 campaign.

Yet all agree the playing field this year will be different.

"There's at least two teams on the field now," says Guiterrez, "and that's good for everybody involved."

Part 2 of this series will appear on Friday. In it, Theresa Bujnoch says the real test of the GOP's Latino strategy may come in California, home to a third of the nation's burgeoning Hispanic population.