Pollsters Eye Two Critical Barometers

Pollsters are closely monitoring two opinion barometers that will have a strong influence on voter behavior in the upcoming election: the mood of the nation and issue structure. The mood is measured by asking people whether they believe the country is headed in the right or wrong direction. During the 1992 presidential election, the nation’s mood was highly negative, mostly due to the country’s recession. Democratic candidate Bill Clinton effectively capitalized on this negative mood by embracing the campaign theme of change. In 1996, though the economy had taken a positive turn, Americans’ mood was unsettled, however, it was not enough to oust Clinton from office. Gradually, Americans have begun to agree with the direction of the country so that, according to most polls over half of Americans currently registers a positive mood.

A positive climate usually benefits the incumbent administration. However, because there is still uncertainty in voters’ minds—especially with the fluctuating stock market, perception of the country’s moral decay, and recent foreign policy crises—it may not work to Democratic candidate Al Gore’s advantage. Gore has incorporated the good mood in his campaign strategy by taking credit and attempting to show that his administration will build upon it. Republican candidate George W. Bush, on the other hand, acknowledges the positive mood but argues that morally and socially the country needs change.

The issue structure barometer is measured by asking people to identify, without prompting, the number one issue facing the country. Historically, the economy or foreign policy has topped people’s lists. In fact, only on several occasions—including labor unrest during the 1940s, the 1960s civil rights movement, the 1970s energy crisis, and the 1980s drug wars—have these issues been knocked off the top of the list. During the peace and prosperity of the late 1990s, however, the country realized a significant shift away from the economy and foreign policy so that people became concerned with domestic social issues such as education, crime, and health care.

As with the mood, both candidates have incorporated the issue structure into their campaign themes. Bush has developed a comprehensive program for education, while Gore has focused attention on health care reform. Unfortunately for the candidates, this issue structure presents some campaign hazards. First, because no single issue dominates the morass of social issues facing the country, candidates will have difficulty addressing the concerns of large voting blocks. Again, the 1992 election offers a good example when one single dominating issue—the economy—was used to rally support around a candidate. In the current election, however, no more than fifteen percent mentions any specific issue. Second, the candidates will have a hard time offering leadership on issues where everyone considers himself or hersef an expert. Americans have daily, local contact with social issues such as education and healthcare, and they come with preconceived—and often conflicting—ideas of what should be done to address these issues. With the economy and foreign policy, on the other hand, people look to national leaders to offer direction.

With a couple of weeks until November 7, a change in either barometer could cause a major shift in the election’s direction. A plummeting stock market could cause a downturn in mood, or the recent terrorist attack in Yemen could focus more attention on foreign policy issues. The campaigns will be monitoring these trends closely to see if they do.