Poll: Race Is All Even

The general election this November has become a dead heat. For the first time this season, voters are divided over which party they think will win the White House come November. And the frontrunners for each party's nomination - Al Gore and George W. Bush - are tied in a general election match-up.

WHO WILL WIN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2000?

According to a new CBS News/New York Times poll, 41 percent of registered voters nationally think the Republican party will win the White House, and 39 percent think the Democrats will. In November of last year, the Republicans were given a 20 point edge: 52 percent to 32 percent.

THE GENERAL ELECTION

With Bush's inevitability being dented by McCain's primary success, and Gore's electability problem a thing of the past, Gore and Bush are currently tied at 44 percent and 45 percent respectively among registered voters. Last year, in contrast, Bush led Gore by as much as 17 points (52 percent to 35 percent in September).

GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS

Gore also ies McCain with 41 percent to 42 percent. Bradley, however, trails both Republicans. And when asked a generic party horse-race, voters divide evenly between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate: 40 percent to 41 percent respectively.

In the race to control Congress, the Democrats retain a large advantage in national preferences: 44 percent of voters say that if the election were held today they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 33 percent say they would support the Republican.

THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RACE

George W. Bush maintains a strong lead over McCain among likely Republican primary voters: 53 percent to 33 percent. Alan Keyes receives 5 percent of the vote.

THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTE

Among those voters paying the most attention to the race, however, McCain has the edge. Among the 26 percent of Republican primary voters who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, McCain leads Bush 47 percent to 35 percent.

McCain does best in both the northeastern United States and out west, regions that will play a pivotal role on March 7th, when California and New York hold their primaries. Republican primary voters in the northeast are divided between Bush and McCain, 47 percent to 44 percent, as are voters in the west, 40 percent to 36 percent.

Bush's attempts to paint McCain as a liberal ally of the Democratic Party have failed so far.

CANDIDATE IDEOLOGY

Republican voters currently view both candidates as moderate to conservative, and if anything, view Bush as the more moderate of the two: 49 percent of Republican primary voters call Bush a moderate and 33 percent call him a conservative; 40 percent see McCain as moderate and 32 percent as a conservative.

Despite McCain's recent gains, Bush is still seen by most Republican primary voters as the likely nominee. Seventy-three percent of likely Republican voters say they expect Bush to win the nomination, while only 19 percent expect McCain to triumph. Even around half of McCain's supporters expect Bush to win.

THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RACE

Gore continues to dominate the Democratic race nationally: he currently leads Bradley by 39 points among likely Democratic primary voters, 64 percent to 25 percent. In addition, the gender gap in support for the two candidates persists. Bradley receives 32 percent of the vote among Democratic men, but only 19 percent among Democratic women.

THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTE

Bradley has lost ground over the past two months, and his new campaign strategy of attacking Gore may be responsible. Forty percent of Democratic primary voters think that Bradley is spending more time attacking Gore than explaining his own positions on the issues.

WHO'S GONE NEGATIVE?

In contrast, only 23 percent think Gore has been focused on attacking Bradley. And among those who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign these days, Gore receives 73 percent of the vote.

Democratic primary voters see Gore's nomination as inevitable: 85 percent expect him to be the party's nominee. At the same time, however, the race is POTENTIALLY fluid as 51 percent of Democratic primary voters say it is still too early to know for sure who they'll support.

CANDIDATE IMAGES

Voters see Gore and Bush as typical politicians, saying what they think people want to hear, rather than what they really believe. Sixty-one percent of registered voters think Bush more often says what people want to hear, and 61 percent think the same about Gore.

SAYS WHAT HE BELIEVES OR WHAT PEOPLE WANT TO HEAR?

McCain and Bradley, on the other hand, are believed to more often say what they believe: 49 percent say McCain says what he believes, and 42 percent say Bradley does. Among Republican primary voters McCain retains his edge over Bush on this quality. But among Democratic primary voters, Gore draws nearly even with Bradley.

Gore's image may suffer from lingering allegations of campaign finance improprieties in the 1996 election: 40 percent of voters think that Gore has, at some time, made or changed a policy decision as a result of a campaign contribution -- more than think this of any other candidate. Even 30 percent of Democratic primary voters believe Gore has been influenced by contributions. In general, however, many voters are undecided about each of the leading candidates' actions in this area.

EVER MADE OR CHANGED POLICY AS A RESULT OF CONTRIBUTIONS?

Only 24 percent of voters overall think Gore has never changed policy for a contribution, and 36 percent don't know. Only 22 percent of voters think that Bradley has ever changed a position as a result of a contribution.

Voters also see Bush as more likely to have changed a policy decision for a contributor than not: 30 percent think he has, while 23 percent think he has not. But voters are less likely to think this about McCain. Only 25 percent think McCain has ever made or changed policy as a result of a contribution. Among Republican primary voters, however, the candidates are viewed equally on this issue.

ELECTION ISSUES

While McCain and Bradley have the upper hand on image, it may not, ultimately, give them much advantage in the vote. Voters say that issues, rather than personal qualities, are what determine their vote. Sixty-six percent say that a candidate's issue positions are more important to their vote, while only 24 percent say that a candidate's personal qualities are.

Republican primary voters are most concerned with the issues of taxes: 12 percent of Republican voters cite taxes as the issue they'd most like the government to address, and another 10 percent cite the debt.

HOW TO SPEND THE SURPLUS

At the same time, however, when asked how they would like to spend the projected budget surplus, only 23 percent of Republican primary voters choose taxes. But 43 percent say they'd rather shore up Social Security and Medicare, and 20 percent would like to use the surplus to pay down the debt.

Abortion is also of some concern to Republicans. Pro-life voters prefer Bush, while pro-choice voters are divided. Overall, however, abortion plays a more important role in the vote of pro-lifers: 66 percent of Republican primary voters who would like to see abortion banned say the issue plays a very important role in their vote.

Democratic primary voters are most concerned with health care (13 percent), Social Security (12 percent) and education (10 percent). In addition, President Clinton continues to have some affect on the Democratic primary vote. Seventy percent of Democratic voters view Mr. Clinton favorably, and among this group Gore gets 72 percent of the vote. Among the 16 percent of Democratic primary voters who view the President unfavorably, Gore and Bradley are tied.