Poll: Bush, Gore Lead NY

Narly half of New York state Republicans - 46 percent - are Catholics, a group that may or may not react negatively to the Bush campaign's appeal to fundamentalist Christians in South Carolina and Michigan. Currently, Bush holds a slight lead among New York Catholics: 44 percent to 38 percent.

THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES

McCain's image as a straight-talker is alive and well in New York state. McCain scores higher than Bush with New York State Republican voters when it comes to saying what he really thinks, rather than what he thinks voters want to hear. Fifty-five percent of Republican voters say McCain says what he really believes most of the time, while 41 percent say this about Bush.

In addition, Bush is more likely than McCain to be seen as changing a policy decision based on a campaign contribution. Twenty-seven percent think Bush has, while 18 percent say this about McCain.

The most common reason McCain voters give for favoring their candidate is his honesty and integrity - 31 percent say this. Another 16 percent say they're voting for McCain because they don't like the other candidates. Bush supporters say they like their candidate's policies, but also cite his experience. Eleven percent say they are supporting him because of his father, the former President.

As in other states, and nationally, McCain appeals to those who are NOT Republicans, while opinions of Bush are polarized along party lines. Self-described Democrats and Independents rate McCain favorably; but those same groups look negatively on Bush. Only those who are registered as Republicans, however, will be eligible to vote.

THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Al Gore has a daunting lead over Bill Bradley in Democratic primary voter preference in New York State. Democratic primary voters are just about twice as likely to say they plan to vote for Gore as to vote for Bradley: 59 percent choose Gore while 28 percent go for Bradey.

The Gore campaign leads Bradley in all demographic groups. Bradley does best among college graduates, and wealthier Democrats, but trails even among those core supporters. And among Democratic primary voters who call themselves fans of the New York Knicks, Bradley is down by 30 points.

Support for Gore knows no ideological bounds: liberals, moderates and conservatives alike support Gore two to one over Bradley. And although Bradley has been making efforts to reach out to New York's African-American community, and has recently been endorsed by Michael Jordan, black Democratic voters give Gore a more than three to one lead: 71 percent to 19 percent.

Gore voters give two major reasons for their support, and both are, at least in part, the result of his service as Vice President in the Clinton administration. Twenty-seven percent of Gore's voters say they support him because of his overall experience, and 20 percent specifically mention the Clinton administration in their support of Gore.

Conversely, just 5 percent of Bradley support say they would vote for Bradley because of their feelings about the administration, but 13 percent say they support Bradley because they don't like Gore. The largest percentage of Bradley voters (16 percent) note Bradley's honesty as the reason for their choice.

Gore appears untainted, at least among Democratic primary voters, by at least two of the Clinton administration's problems: the campaign financing questions raised during the 1996 campaign, and charges that the administration twists the truth. Just 16 percent of Democratic voters think Gore has ever changed a policy decision based on a campaign contribution. Eleven percent think this about Bradley.

In addition, both candidates are seen as trustworthy: 62 percent of Democratic primary voters say Bradley can be trusted to keep his word as President, and even more, 74 percent, say this about Gore.

Bradley does have an edge over Gore in how independents view him. By 30 percent to 18 percent, self-described independents hold a favorable view of Bradley. They divide narrowly negative on Gore, 22 percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable. This may provide little help for Bradley on March 7th, however, as self-described independents make up only 14 percent of the probable Democratic primary electorate.