Pa.'s Pivotal GOP Senate Primary

Douglas Kiker of the CBS News Political Unit on a race with numerous implications, far beyond Pennsylvania

The outcome of the primary, analysts say, could determine whether Republicans continue to control the U.S. Senate after November.

On one side is 74-year-old Sen. Arlen Specter, a true moderate's moderate who votes with Democrats almost exactly 50 percent of the time. First elected in 1980, the former prosecutor is as well known for his ability to deliver federal dollars to the state as any specific legislation. For his entire tenure as a senator, he's angered conservatives for votes against their causes from taxes to judicial appointments, most recently voting against sending the nomination of William Pryor from the Judiciary Committee to the full Senate. Still, he's always managed to win re-election by comfortable margins, with the exception of 1992, when there was a backlash among women voters over his aggressive questioning of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings.

Running against him for the GOP nomination is former Wall Streeter, Harvard grad and conservative ideologue Rep. Pat Toomey, 43. Toomey sits on the Budget, Financial Services and Small Business committees and is known as a tax-cutting, spending-cutting budget hawk. He is also conservative on social issues such as abortion and cloning.

Toomey jumped into the race more than a year ago and immediately began running ads calling Specter a liberal on everything from taxes to spending to social issues. Almost immediately, Toomey received the backing of the rabidly anti-tax group, The Club for Growth, which has made its name in recent years by challenging moderate Republicans and influencing congressional races with huge influxes of cash. To date, CFG and its members have poured $2 million into the Toomey-Specter race, including $1 million on ads like the one the ran last month attacking Specter for being "surprisingly liberal" and another this week on the death tax. Other conservative groups like the National Right to Life Committee, the National Taxpayers Union and the Focus on the Family also have been helping Toomey. (The National Rifle Association, it should be noted, endorsed Specter despite Toomey's more gun-friendly voting record.)

The Club for Growth's founder and president, Stephen Moore, has said a Toomey victory would be a shot across the bow to other Senate moderates like George Voinovich and Lincoln Chafee, among others. Toe the line or face a costly primary fight – or worse.

While Specter has always faced conservative opponents for the GOP nomination – they usually manage to get about 35 percent of the vote -- the race against Toomey has become the fight of Specter's political life. It has forced the moderate lawmaker to run to his right on issues like gun control and tax cuts.

It's also cost him massive amounts of money, including nearly $7 million that he was forced to spend to fend off Toomey in the first three months of 2004 alone. Toomey spent about $2.2 million in the same period. He has about $1.1 million cash-on-hand while Specter still has a $4.5 million in the bank. While much has been made about the Club for Growth's influence on the race on the financial front, one political analyst says Specter's ability to raise and spend massive amounts of money – almost three-to-one in the first quarter alone – has enabled him to define Toomey in the public's mind very effectively.

Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the Cook Political Report, says: "Toomey probably did not have resources to define himself, so Specter has done that for him."

The latest poll showed Specter leading Toomey 52 percent to 37 percent, but Duffy says polling in the race should be viewed with skepticism. "This race will come down to who gets their voters out," she says. "I'm not sure anybody has a sense of where that is for either side."

Ultimately, however, the race could come down to whether ideology can trump political reality.

If Specter wins, the chances are very good that he will go on to victory in November. If Toomey pulls off the upset, the Republican Party's prospects for keeping the seat – and hence control of the Senate itself – are gloomy at best.

"If Toomey wins, it will be a toss-up, at best, for Republicans in November," Duffy says.

That cold, hard dose of political reality could explain why, despite Specter's moderate voting record and willingness to stray off the Republican reservation, the party in general -- including the White House and nine of the state's 11 GOP congressmen -- has steadfastly backed him.

"It's been an ideological war on the ground but most of the actual conservative establishment is behind Specter," Duffy says.

A surefire sign of pragmatism topping ideology was Specter's endorsement by fellow Republican Sen. Rick Santorum earlier this year. Ordinarily, a fellow senator's endorsement would not raise too many eyebrows. But an endorsement from Santorum – one of the most conservative members of the Senate who is as ardently pro-life as Specter is devoted to abortion rights, for example – is a clear sign of the importance Republican establishment has placed in a Specter win.

The White House also has gone to lengths to help Specter. President Bush will appear at a Pittsburgh fundraiser for Specter, who has featured a so-called "portico walk" (a shot of him and Bush walking together at the White House) in every television ad he's run in the campaign. Vice President Dick Cheney and several cabinet members have campaigned for Specter in Pennsylvania.

One political observer points out that should Toomey win – and then lose in the general election – the really big loser could be the Club for Growth itself.

"If they beat Specter in this primary, are they willing to take credit for Democrats taking over the Senate? It would put the Republican majority in an incredibly precarious position and they would bear a lot of responsibility for that," the observer noted.

On the other hand, CFG believes that it's sending a wake-up call to other moderate Republicans: Don't mess with us.

By Douglas Kiker