Overstating The Obama Effect?

UMBC political scientist Tom Schaller’s New York Times op-ed today punctures some myths about Barack Obama’s ability to win several Deep South states like Mississippi, Georgia and North Carolina — and also carries significant implications in assessing the Congressional campaign landscape.

In the column, Schaller questions the conventional wisdom that the sizable African-American turnout in these Southern states will soar significantly on behalf of Obama without any countervailing boost in the heavily Republican white vote.

As Schaller writes:

"Two pervasive and persistent myths about racial voting in the modern South are behind the notion that Mr. Obama might win in places like Georgia, North Carolina and Mississippi.
The first myth is that African-American turnout in the South is low. Black voters are actually well represented in the Southern electorate: In the 11 states of the former Confederacy, African-Americans were 17.9 percent of the age-eligible population and 17.9 percent of actual voters in 2004, analysis of Census Bureau data shows.

And when socioeconomic status is held constant, black voters go to the polls at higher rates than white voters in the South. In other words, a 40-year-old African-American plumber making $60,000 a year is, on average, more likely to vote than a white man of similar background.”

Many Democratic strategists have been bullish on their potential to pick up Republican-held Southern House seats (and a Mississippi Senate seat) — in large part because Obama’s candidacy is expected to boost the districts’ African-American vote. Among their targets: Reps. Robin Hayes (R-N.C.), Thelma Drake (R-Va.), Charles Boustany (R-La.) and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), and the seats of retiring Reps. Terry Everett (R-Ala.) and Jim McCrery (R-La.).
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