Entertainment

Odd Odds On Surviving Survivors

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

July 26, 2000 / 11:10 AM EDT / CBS

July 26, 2000 - Tonight's episode of Survivor has the eight remaining castaways on the ropes, with immunity at tribal council being granted to only one of them.

And speculation about just who the ultimate survivor will be has reached office pool proportions. Vegas oddmakers like Art Manteris at Caesar's Palace have been providing the line for anyone willing to take a chance on their favorite castaway. The favorite as of Wednesday: Gervase.

But while a bookie can give you the odds-on favorite, Protonesis, an Atlanta-based security company, claims to have the technology to predict the winner. According to their analysis, says partner Clay Fondren, the winner will be Rudy.

Why does Manteris like Gervase?

"He's mellow and seems to get along with people," he says. "Early on, I didn't think he was helpful. It's working in his favor now. He's an easy-going guy."

What effect does he think the various rumors have had on the odds? Does he change them as a result of anything you might see or hear?

SURVIVOR ODDS

Who Will Survive?

1. Gervase.................2/1
2. Rudy.....................3/1
3. Susan....................5/1
4. Sean.....................7/1
5. Jenna....................8/1
6. Richard................10/1
7. Kelly....................12/1
8. Colleen................15/1

Source: Caesar's Palace
For entertainment purposes only

"Public perception does play a big part of odds-making, as in this case," Manteris explains. "A lot of people think Gervase is going to win right now. I happen to be one of them, but not for the reasons that everybody else is saying. I think he's going to win because he's likable and very athletic and doing real well in the competitions. Rudy is just the opposite. He doesn't get along with anyone. He's a crusty old man, but I love to watch him. He has great survival skills. I don't know if I want to live with him on an island."

Fondren, on the other hand, relied more on technology to pick Rudy as the winner.

"We analyze speech for content… It would be a thought is like, say, a ball of string. We unwind it and pull the threads out, and we're able to analyze it for strategic information," he explains.

So he can tell by a person's manner what the person is thinking?

"No, not by your manner but by your speech itself," he ays. "We're able to diagram it and analyze it and pull extra speech content out of your speech."

Fondren's company drew its conclusion after analyzing interviews with Survivor castoffs, including those conducted on The Early Show.