Obama, Clinton Campaigns Look To Manage Super Tuesday Expectations

Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has released a memo to reporters attempting to lower expectations for Obama's performance on Super Tuesday.

"Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could 'wrap up' the nomination on February 5th," he writes in his opening paragraph. "As the 'inevitable' national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama's growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow."

That paragraph sets the tone for the rest of the memo, in which Plouffe argues that anything less than a resounding win for Clinton is a victory for Obama.

"Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states," he writes.

A CBS News poll released yesterday shows that Clinton and Obama are now running about even nationally, though the former first lady holds a 49 percent to 31 percent lead in Super Tuesday states.

Plouffe writes that Clinton "should still win California," where she once led by double-digits, "but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates." Recent polls show a tightening race in California, though many residents mailed in their votes before Obama's momentum-generating South Carolina victory.

"We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states," Plouffe continues. "If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months."

Clinton senior strategist Mark Penn and press secretary Howard Wolfson held a conference call with reporters on the state of the race this afternoon. While they said the campaign is confident of winning a large number of diverse states and maintaining a delegate lead at the end of the night, they signaled they are already looking beyond tomorrow.

"The results are likely to be close and inconclusive," Wolfson said. "Right now, we are looking at a fight that will go on way beyond tomorrow." Wolfson said Democratic Party rules, which prohibit "winner take all" primaries, are the reason why. "The nominating rules of our party are designed to prolong a contest between two strong candidates."

Both Wolfson and Penn cited Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania as upcoming states friendly to Clinton. Pennsylvania holds its primary on April 22nd. Wolfson even raised the prospect that the nomination may not be decided until the convention in August.