New Day In South Carolina?

Picture postcard South Carolina - where old times are not forgotten and upstarts who take on the Republican establishment are taken down to size.

South Carolina rescued establishment candidate George Bush from upstart challenger Bob Dole in 1988, and helped Dole finish off Pat Buchanan in 1996.

But times have changed, reports CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent Bob Schieffer, and that's the problem for George W. Bush.

Carroll Campbell, the once powerful governor who engineered Bush senior's victory here, sticks to Bush the younger like glue. But Campbell's just a lobbyist now. The party has fractured, and the highest-ranking Republican at the Capitol is Lt. Gov. Bob Peeler, a Bush man for sure, but an admitted political novice.

"I'm kind of new at this," Peeler says, "my only other elected office was chairman of the school board."

What irked the Old Guard was popular young congressmen Mark Sanford and Lindsey Graham backing McCain.

But Graham says McCain has changed the landscape. "What John has been able to do is get people fired up about voting again."

Political scientist Cole Blease Graham says that's why Bush suddenly has his hands full. "I don't think he can take South Carolina for granted. McCain is energizing the independent voter."

He means people like upscale workers and middle managers, for example. What is resonating with such voters is McCain's pledge to shake up Washington. And as he crisscrosses the state in his bus, the Straight Talk Express, he talks of little else. That's why the Bush camp is now stressing that their guy's a reformer, too.

And also why it's turned so personal.

"It's one thing to talk campaign finance reform on the one hand, and on the other to say pass the plate," says Bush. " He's receiving a lot of help from lobbyists and special interests he's railing against."

McCain is hitting hard, too. "A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation," he says. "When I was 30 points down in the polls we were buddies; when I beat him in New Hampshire, I became a hypocrite. Very interesting."

Whatever else can be said, the whole dynamic in this race has changed. Two weeks ago people were saying McCain had to win here or his campaign was doomed. Now some of the same people are saying it's Bush who needs a win here - and needs it badly.