Musharraf Walks The Political Tightrope

Written for CBSNews.com by Farhan Bokhari, reporting from Islamabad.

Leaders from the three opposition parties likely to form a new coalition government were planning to meet in the Pakistani capital to discuss power-sharing - but it was also to be a show of strength against the embattled president. The exact details of the meeting were being kept secret, with party officials citing security concerns.

Musharraf's office refuted a report on Sunday in Britain's Sunday Telegraph newspaper which claimed he was planning to step down within days, rather than face the wrath of his political opponents who are set to form the new government.

Now, more than a week after parliamentary elections saw the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q) party thoroughly routed, diplomats and analysts tell CBS News the future of Pakistan's U.S.-allied ruler appears dependent on his tricky relationships with the two largest opposition parties.

Together, slain form Prime Minister Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, won a comfortable majority in the 342 lower house of parliament, the national assembly, giving them enough votes to nominate the next prime minister.

Under Pakistan's constitution, the president holds the most powerful office - armed with the authority to sack the prime minister and dissolve parliament.

However, analysts warned, Musharraf will be unable to take such an extreme step in the near future, largely due to the international pressure that he faces - including pressure from Washington - to give the newly elected politicians a chance to form a new government.

Musharraf's relations with Asif Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's husband who now heads the PPP, and with Sharif are likely to remain tense.

Sharif was arrested during a bloodless 1999 coup led by Musharraf in his previous position as chief of the powerful Pakistani military.

Musharraf retired from the army at the end of 2007, appointing General Ashfaq Kiyani as the new army chief - a move which seriously diluted Musharraf's authority.

The army has ruled Pakistan for more than half its existence as an independent state, and still remains the country's most powerful institution. Sharif was exiled by Musharraf to Saudi Arabia after the 1999 coup, where he spent almost seven years before returning home at the end of last year.

(AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

Analysts warned that the opposition's lack of seats in the legislature should not console the Pakistani president into being complacent over his future. "There are a range of pressures working against the president," said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Pakistani analyst on security and political affairs.

"If the president's position becomes paralyzed, how can he continue to function? There is a risk President Musharraf could be forced to step down" Rizvi told CBS News on the phone from his office at John Hopkins University, where he presently teaches.

One potential embarrassment looming on the horizon for Musharraf is the prediction that the new government may usher the return of former Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, who was sacked by Musharraf on November 3rd last year - right after the embattled president imposed a state of emergency across the country.

At the time of his dismissal Chaudhry was hearing a petition challenging Musharraf's decision to run in presidential elections while he was still the serving army chief. Legal analysts said Musharraf's candidacy was illegal, as the constitution states an army chief cannot contest elections for political office.

A senior European ambassador warned on Wednesday that the Pakistani president could end up facing an even more uncertain future if the new government - likely to be led by a coalition of parties - fails to take power smoothly.

"If there is bickering and infighting after the new government steps in, Musharraf will be under a lot of pressure to resign" the diplomat told CBS News on condition of anonymity.

A Pakistani government official who knows Musharraf said the mood of opposition political leaders will become clear by the end of the week, "at which time we would know if there is going to be fast mounting pressure on the president which could force him to step down".

The official told CBS News, "once it is clear that the opposition government will be completely hostile, president Musharraf will have to think hard about his own future". He spoke to CBS on condition of anonymity, due to the sensitivity of the subject matter.

Events in Islamabad will be watched with particular interest in Washington, where the Bush administration has valued Musharraf as a close ally in the war against terrorism.

In recent weeks, however, U.S. officials have made it clear they will work cooperatively with the new government - and with any successor to the Pakistani presidency, should Musharraf find himself looking for a new job.