More Tech Shoppers Dumping Laptops for Tablet Computers

It took nearly a couple of decades before sales of laptop computers began outstripping sales of desktop PCs. Increasingly, it looks as if it'll be a fraction of that time before tablet computers began to elbow aside laptops.

A new report out of Morgan Stanley finds that tablet cannibalization has contributed to a downturn in notebook sales over the last three quarters. You can chalk up most of that to Apple's iPad, which was introduced in April. At the same time, Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn earlier this week estimatedthat the iPad had cannibalized sales from the laptop PCs his chain sells by as much as 50 percent. "People are willing to disproportionately spend for these devices because they are becoming so important to their lives," he told the Wall Street Journal.

Some of the decline in laptop sales may be related to the economy as well as the fast-growing popularity of smartphones. Still, history may be repeating itself, albeit slowly. It seemingly took forever before computer makers figured out how to build notebook computers that were as functional - if not better - than desktop machines without charging a painful premium.

Analysts now expect Apple to sell between 11 million and 13 million iPads by the end of the year. If those forecasts materialize, it would mean that the iPad is bringing out more than the so-called early adopters, a perennial set of tech geeks who can be depended on to snap up the latest and greatest devices.

But this transition will take time if Apple is the only device maker with a success story to tell. As other computer makers enter the tablet PC business, they'll also need to equip newer generations of the devices with more powerful features that appeal to a wide population of tech shoppers - and at prices that won't induce heart seizure. We'll have a clearer idea where this is all heading once the big Q4 sales season gets underway. Stay tuned.