Michigan Leaning To Gore

Vice President Al Gore has a four-point lead over Republican George W. Bush in the battleground state of Michigan, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll.

Gore has the support of 45 percent of the state's likely voters, while Bush gets 41 percent. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is the choice of just 5 percent, but he appears to be taking more votes from Gore than from Bush. (Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan is not on the ballot in the state.)

Gore's lead is based in part on his strong showing with union workers and their families. The Democrat also appears to be winning the advertising battle; nearly all Michigan voters have seen campaign ads, but Gore’s appear to be making the better impression.

Presidential Preference
	Gore	Bush	Nader
	45%	41%	5%

Union membership matters as well. While Bush leads in non-union households in Michigan, 46 percent to 41 percent, in union households (who make up nearly a third of the state’s likely voters) Gore has nearly a two to one lead: 56 percent to 29 percent. Nader receives 6 percent of the vote in union households. While 16 percent of those in union households say they prefer Nader’s or Buchanan’s positions on trade issues, that doesn’t, at this point, translate into votes.

Presidential Preference
	Gore	Bush	Nader
Union	56%	29%	6%
	Gore	Bush	Nader
Non-Union	41%	46%	4%

THE AD WARS

Michigan has been inundated with presidential television advertisements, and few voters have escaped their reach: 88 percent of voters report having seen ads for Bush, and 84 percent have seen ads for Gore. But the ads differ substantially in content, at least in the eyes of the voters.

Bush’s advertising (as well as his entire campaign), is seen as more negative than Gore’s. And voters are divided over how Bush’s ads have affected their opinion of him.

As many voters say Busis spending more time attacking Gore as say he is explaining his issue positions to voters: 41 percent versus 42 percent respectively. In contrast, voters view the Gore campaign as a positive enterprise. Two-thirds of voters say Gore’s campaign has spent more time explaining his positions; only 21 percent think Gore has mostly been on the attack.

Opinions on the candidates’ advertising echo these feelings. Among those who have seen Gore’s ads, more than six in ten think they have been positive in tone, and only 21 percent think they have been mostly attack ads. Bush’s ads are viewed more negatively – among those who have seen Bush’s ads only 45 percent think the ads are explaining his positions, while 35 percent think they have been mostly attack ads.

The negativity voters see in Bush’s ad campaign may be backfiring. Those who have seen Bush’s ads are divided over whether the ads have made them think better or worse of Bush. Thirty-five percent say the ads have changed their opinions for the better, but 37 percent say their opinions of Bush have worsened as a result of the ads. And among the third who think Bush’s ads are negative, three-quarters have lowered their opinion of Bush.

Bush’s ads have not had the intended effect on Gore’s image either. Among those who have seen Bush ads, 42 percent have not changed their opinion of Gore, while 31 percent say the ads have made them think better of Gore, and only 19 percent think worse.

In contrast, Gore’s ad campaign has worked chiefly to his advantage: 48 percent of viewers say their opinion of Gore has improved as a result of his ad campaign, while 24 percent have not changed their opinion of him and only 23 percent have worsened theirs. Among those same viewers, 31 percent say Gore’s ads have made them think worse of Bush, while only 18 percent now think better of Bush, and 44 percent are unaffected by the ads.

CANDIDATE IMAGES

Perhaps because of voters’ negative perceptions of his campaign, Bush’s personal negatives are higher in Michigan than they are nationally. Thirty-four percent of Michigan voters have an unfavorable impression of the Texas governor, while 39 percent have a favorable impression. In a national poll last week, only 28 percent of voters had unfavorable views of Bush.

Opinions of the Candidates
	Favorable	Not Favorable
Bush	39%	34%
	Favorable	Not Favorable
Gore	47%	30%

UNION ACTIVITY

While television campaign ads reach nearly all voters, union members usually also receive individualzed campaign attention from their unions. But so far in this campaign, most union members – 64 percent - say they have yet to be contacted by their unions about the election, while only one-third of members have. It appears the United Auto Workers has been the most active union so far: nearly half of voters in UAW households report having been contacted by the union about the presidential election.

TRADE AND OTHER ISSUES

As is the case nationally, Medicare and Social Security rank as the top problems voters would like the government to address: together they are cited by 17 percent of voters (Medicare is mentioned by 9 percent and Social Security by 8 percent). Fourteen percent volunteer education, followed by health care with 12 percent. Taxes are volunteered by about one in twenty voters, as is the current high price of oil and gasoline.

Less than one in ten voters name any economic concern – jobs and trade included – as the top issue. But because of the preponderance of union members in the state, Michigan voters take a distinctly negative view of the possible impact of foreign trade on the U.S. labor force (an issue both Nader and Buchanan have stressed). Forty-four percent think that trade with countries overseas loses jobs for the U.S., and 32 percent think it creates jobs. Among union households, opinion of foreign trade is negative by more than two to one. Fifty-four percent of voters in union households think overseas trade loses jobs at home, and 26 percent think it creates jobs.

When it comes to trade issues, union members align themselves with the Democratic candidate, but not overwhelmingly. Forty percent of those living in a union household say their position on trade most closely matches Gore’s, and 18 percent say their views more closely match Bush’s. Sixteen percent say neither major party nominee supports their position, but that either Nader or Buchanan does. Among all Michigan voters, 30 percent share Gore’s views on trade, and 25 percent share Bush’s views.

But even among union members in the state, trade is not the predominant issue in this campaign. Sixty percent of those in union households say that while trade is an important issue in their vote, so are other issues. Only 3 percent say trade is the most important factor influencing their vote, and 36 percent say the issue will have no impact on their vote at all.

STABENOW AND ABRAHAM

Campaign attacks in the Senate race between incumbent Republican Spencer Abraham and Democrat Debbie Stabenow have registered with voters. Abraham has a clear lead over Stabenow, 46 percent to 34 percent in this poll. But unlike the presidential contest, in the Senate race both candidates are seen as running predominantly negative campaigns.

Stabenow runs less well than Al Gore in key Democratic voting groups. While there is a gender gap, it hasn’t helped Stabenow so far. Abraham has a 25-poit lead with men (54 percent to 29 percent), while he runs even with women voters (39 percent Abraham, 38 percent Stabenow). Union households give Stabenow a 10-point lead, but Abraham leads by twenty points in non-union households. Nearly one in five voters claim they are still undecided.

The Senate campaign is seen as much more negative than the presidential race – both Stabenow and Abraham are more likely to be seen as attacking their opponent than explaining their positions on the issues. Nearly half – 49 percent - think Abraham has spent more time in his campaign attacking Stabenow, while only 27 percent think he has spent more time explaining what he would do as senator. Forty-one percent say Stabenow has spent her time attacking her opponent, and 33 percent say she has focused on explaining what she would do as senator.

Despite the negative assessment of both campaigns, neither candidate is seen by a majority of voters as having gone too far. Thirty-one percent of voters think Abraham has attacked Stabenow unfairly. Twenty-three percent say she has done the same to him.

Michigan voters view Abraham more favorably than Stabenow, despite the negative campaign tactics. Overall, 40 percent have a favorable image of him, and 24 percent are unfavorable. Voters with an opinion are divided about Stabenow. Twenty-eight percent have a favorable image of her, while 30 percent are unfavorable.