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Medicis Squeezed in Vanity Pharma Death Match vs. Allergan and J&J

Medicis may find itself on the losing side of the vanity pharma death match now that Johnson & Johnson has waded in with what will soon be a full suite of silicone breast implants, wrinkle fillers and botulinum toxin line smoothers. J&J on Monday agreed to acquire implant maker Mentor Corp for $1.07 billion. Mentor is developing two more dermal fillers and a Botox competitor, called PurTox. Neither franchise is yet approved by the FDA. The acquisition adds to J&J's existing vanity pharma portfolio which it started in September with Evolence, a wrinkle filler.

The significance of J&J's move is that the three companies (except Medicis) now have competing products in the three major vanity pharma categories. Here's the competitive matrix:

Company Toxin Filler Implant
Allergan Botox Juvederm Natrelle
Medicis Reloxin Restylane None
J&J PurTox Evolence MemoryGel
With doctors and patients now able to choose between three competitors across all three categories, it can mean only one thing: a race to the bottom, price-wise, is about to begin.

Early signs are that Medicis is least-well positioned to win this commodity fight. It's the smallest company (it lost the Inamed breast-implant maker acquisition bidding war to Allergan a couple of years ago).

J&J is starting from furthest behind in this race. Mentor's sales are actually the only one of the three currently in decline. Here's the sales picture:

But now that Mentor is backed by J&J, it has -- at least potentially -- the largest available sales and distribution force.

The starting gun already sounded on the race with the recession. Esthetic docs are offering price cuts just like Walmart. So the category is now experiencing a perfect storm: heightened competition at a time of slackening demand.

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