Politics

McCain Tops Bush In N.H. Poll

December 9, 1999 / 9:23 AM EST / AP

Arizona Sen. John McCain has moved into a narrow lead over George W. Bush in New Hampshire in the first poll to find the Texas governor slipping behind.

With less than two months before the nation's first presidential primary, McCain drew the support of 37 percent of likely Republican voters compared with 30 percent for Bush in the survey released Wednesday by the American Research Group.

Previous polls found Bush - consistently and by wide margins the front-runner nationally - facing an ever tighter race against McCain in New Hampshire. A few surveys before and after last week's GOP debate in the state put them in a statistical tie.

The new poll of 600 likely Republican voters and 600 likely Democratic voters had a margin of error of 4 percentage points, leaving McCain with a small but statistically significant lead. It was taken Friday to Tuesday, spanning a period from the day after the New Hampshire debate to the day after a debate in Arizona.

The poll confirms that "we continue to gain strength on the appeal of Senator McCain's independent conservative message," said Peter Spaulding, his New Hampshire chairman.

On the Democratic side, the poll found former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley continued in a statistical tie with Al Gore, getting 44 percent to the vice president's 40 percent.

In the GOP field, Steve Forbes was third, with 10 percent. Alan Keyes had 5 percent; Gary Bauer and Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch each scored 1 percent.

Pollster Dick Bennett said that as the Feb. 1 primary approaches, Bush continues to slide in the polls, while McCain continues to improve his standing.

Last month's poll by American Research Group put Bush and McCain in a statistical dead heat, with 38 percent backing Bush and 35 percent for McCain. The latest poll represented a 12-point drop for Bush since October.

Bennett said Bush's standing was not helped by his performance in last Thursday's nationally televised debate, the first in which the governor agreed to appear.

Bush, the clear leader in GOP endorsements and campaign fund raising as well as national polls, skipped two earlier debates in New Hampshire, angering some voters who said he was taking their support for granted.