McCain Looks Ahead

His presidential campaign suspended, John McCain got back to work in the Senate this week. The Arizona senator is tanned, rested and ready. The big question, both inside and outside the Beltway, is ready for what, exactly?

A third party - or anti-party - bid, which Reform refugee Governor Jesse Ventura assures him he could win? A floor fight or prominent role at the Republican convention, where he could try to shame fellow Republicans and nominee George W. Bush into adopting some or all of his positions on campaign finance reform?

Your reporter spoke to the senator on his first day back in Washington, and it turns out the answer is, "none of the above."

Those who expected McCain to follow in the Churchillian mold of "in victory magnanimity, in defeat defiance," will be surprised to find the senator in a remarkably conciliatory mood. Remarkable, given the senator's reputation - be it fair or unfair - for irascibility. Remarkable given the highly negative tone of the primary campaign, particularly down the stretch to Super Tuesday. And remarkable now, given the notable absence of gestures, aside from what one might call obligatory politeness, from Bush toward McCain and his positions, especially his stand on campaign finance reform.

"The Republican Party" remains "my home," McCain says. And he will "no doubt" back presumed GOP standard-bearer Bush, though "exactly how that happens and under what circumstances, and my degree of enthusiasm," he allowed, is "yet to be resolved."

The senator does not want to make trouble at the Republican National Convention. He is, in fact, "not demanding anything from Governor Bush" and would "under no circumstances" have interest in the vice-presidential slot on a Bush ticket. While it would be a great honor to be asked, he thinks he "can serve the country far better in the United States Senate" - even if Bush and the party leadership were to ask him to run for party and for country.

So what does McCain want? And what will he do now that he's back in the Senate?

One possibility is that McCain is following the Reagan '76 script. In 1976, Ronald Reagan lost the Republican nomination to incumbent President Gerald Ford. He backed Ford against Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter, though without overwhelming enthusiasm, and when Ford lost the election, Reagan began setting himself up right away for another run in 1980.

McCain may indeed have his sights set on the 2004 Republican nomination, though he's understandably playing his cards very close to his vest right now. It's not, as he puts it, "something that I [can] contemplate with any objectivity at this time." There are plenty of folks inside and outside Washington, though, who think that waiting for an '04 run would be a big mistake.

His enemies, and some of his allies, point out that McCain will by no means inherit the next-in-line slot for the GO nomination. There will be plenty of other prominent Republicans vying for that spot next time around, folks who will likely have a better relationship than McCain does with the party leadership and king-makers.

And many of McCain's friends, and those who'd like to see him become the Reform Party nominee, think his moment is now, with his candidacy and central issue still hot, and that he'd better seize it while he can.

Campaign 2004 is, of course, a long, long way away; eons in political terms. In the meantime, and in the time before this coming election, McCain has before him the unfinished legislative business of campaign finance reform. It's under debate in the Senate again, where McCain can at least stake a reasonable claim to having a mandate behind him.

The senator worries, though, that reform measures may fall victim to their own popularity; that Congress might be tempted to pass a version of reform that is a toothless tiger, for the political points alone. McCain may be in a conciliatory mode for the moment, but he told your reporter in no uncertain terms that he views the pursuit of meaningful campaign finance reform as an "obligation and contract" with those who supported his candidacy - one he will "never forget" and which will remain his "highest priority."

He'll have an uphill fight. Party leaders and Bush-backers such as Trent Lott and Mitch McConnell have said that, QED, Bush's success in the primaries proves that there is no real appetite for reform among rank-and-file Republican voters. McCain, for his part, says flatly that "The Republican Party can either reform or they will be lost in the dustbin of history."

There is obviously no love lost between these Republicans and John McCain. To watch McCain's body language when McConnell's name is mentioned is to see what any reasonable observer would have to call a bristling and hardening of the spine. And though he brushes aside suggestions that he is miffed that Bush has yet to reach out to him with a personal phone call, the absence of this gesture is likely to exacerbate the rift between McCain and the party establishment.

Bush and his backers may have decided that McCain wouldn't be able to deliver his voters unless Bush were to embrace serious reform, which is unlikely at best. They may also feel that those who voted for McCain voted for the man and would not go to the polls for another candidate, even if McCain asked them to.

Calm, conciliatory and still on a campaign finance collision course with the Republican powers that be, McCain may discover if he plans to run again in '04 that you can't get there from here.