Let's Play 'Bogus Expectations'

As we move into the final moments of the 1998 midterm election, Democrats and Republicans are not only running against each other. They are also fine-tuning their spin in what has become a perennial political con game - the one known as Bogus Expectations.

Here's how it works: Party X's private polls reveal that, barring a last-minute shift in voter preference, it will gain more than 20 seats or so in the House and another 8 in the Senate.

That way, on election night when the privately anticipated returns come in, they can proclaim that the results have "dramatically exceeded our highest expectations."

In the meantime, the leaders of Party Y are playing the same shameless game in reverse. By exaggerating their anticipated losses, they can boast on election night that "the setbacks are not nearly as severe as we feared."

The best way to avoid getting caught up in all this malarkey is to listen only to honest pollsters who can legitimately claim to be objective.

Yes, citizens, such unlikely creatures do exist, and in the past few days they have reached a fairly firm consensus as to what is likely to happen next Tuesday.

They tell us we should look for the Republicans to make modest gains in both chambers. Most estimates range from 5 to 20 seats in the House and 1 to 5 seats in the Senate.

But before we reflect on that probable result and its implications, let's assume, for the moment, that these forecasts are wrong. After all, from time to time over the years, voters have taken delight in thumbing their noses at pollsters and turning the tables on their predictions.

So, just for the hell of it, let's consider an ideal Republican scenario: a gain of 40 or more seats in the House and 10 or 12 seats in the Senate.

Such an outcome would surely be interpreted as a harshly negative reaction to the Lewinsky scandal, and would give renewed impetus to the impeachment proceedings. Indeed, given the greatly strengthened GOP majority in Congress, impeachment would loom as a virtual certainty and the notorious sexcapade would move on to a trial in the Senate - unless despondent Democrats could persuade President Clinton to resign.

Beyond that, Republicans would view the result as a solid mandate for their agenda, and they would no doubt revive the conservative "Contract with America" campaign they launched after they captured control of Congress four years ago.

And this time, with the sword of impeachment hovering over him, Clinton would have little power or resources to thwart them. His residency, under such circumstances, would not resemble a lame duck so much as a capon.

Okay, Republicans, time to wake up: this was only a daydream.

Now let's turn to the Democrats and their favorite fantasy for next Tuesday: a gain of at least 5 seats in the Senate and 12 in the House, which would give them the control over Congress they lost in 1994.

Such a result would elevate John Conyers to the chairmanship of the House Judiciary Committee, and with him calling the shots, the impeachment campaign would either wither and die or make a radical turn in focus toward a probe of the tactics employed by Ken Starr and his prosecuting team.

Moreover, not only would Clinton be spared the indignity of impeachment, he would be in a position to make the most of his last two years in the White House. He could pursue his pet legislative projects with renewed vigor, knowing that fellow Democrats would be in command of all the key battle stations in Congress.

So either way, a big victory for Republicans or Democrats would offer the prospect of high drama on Capitol Hill when the new Congress convenes next January.

But getting back to reality, let's assume that the pollsters are correct - and they've been right far more often than they've been wrong in recent elections. Then what we should look for in the immediate future?

If the Republican gains are truly modest - less than 5 seats in the Senate and less than 20 in the House - that won't amount to much of a mandate. The party not in control of the White House almost always picks up seats in a midterm campaign, and that point will be noted time and time again on election night.

In other words, the election will be viewed as a wash, a push, an affirmation of the status quo. Which means, among other things, that the impeachment question will be cloaked in the same shroud of ambiguity and uncertainty that enveloped it when Congress adjourned earlier this fall.

With no clear consensus from the voters to provide direction, the impeachment debate will muddle along in an atmosphere of stormy partisanship. And the eventual outcome - whatever it is - will be steeped in controversy.

In the meantime, as party lines harden, Congress will move further and further away from the spirit of compromise and cooperation that is required for major legislation to be passed.

So much for the virtues of the status quo and a stand-pat election that, in effect, resolves nothing.

By Gary Paul Gates ©1998 CBS Worldwide Corp. All rights reserved