Israel Mounts 'Robust' Iraq Defense

Israel's defense against a potential Iraqi missile attack was on full display Thursday: Arrow anti-missile batteries, pointed skyward amid the sand and scrub brush, were shown to reporters as part of a public relations blitz aimed at discouraging Saddam Hussein from firing his Scuds.

Israel's Arrow system is the most advanced in the world currently deployed, and the air force expresses full faith that it has closed a window of vulnerability that allowed Iraq to rain 39 missiles on Israel during the 1991 Gulf War.

"I'm sure we are better prepared today," said Brig. Gen. Yair Dori, head of the military's air defense forces. "In 1991, we had almost nothing. Now we have a very active, robust defense."

Israel and the United States have spent upward of $2 billion to develop the Arrow, first deployed two years ago at the Palmachim Air Force Base to protect nearby Tel Aviv and surrounding areas.

A second battery has been deployed outside the northern coastal city of Hadera. A third battery is being built.

Officials would not say how many Arrow missiles exist. Each costs about $3 million.

For Israel, having the system is only part of the battle. The military also believes that advertising the Arrow will deter Saddam from striking if he comes under attack from the United States.

President Bush has said the United States is prepared to invade Iraq if Saddam does not allow United Nations weapons inspectors to dismantle any weapons of mass destruction that Iraq may possess.

Israel on Thursday brought a bus load of journalists for briefings and a view of the four dun-colored missile launchers, each loaded with six Arrow missiles, air force officials said. The launchers are set about 100 yards apart in the otherwise empty flatlands a short distance from the sea.

"I'm sure (Saddam's) motivation is to bring Israel into this conflict," Dori said as he stood next to a 25-foot-tall Arrow. "But I'm also sure that fewer missiles will fall into Israel."

In the Gulf War, the United States rushed Patriot missile defense batteries to Israel. But the Patriots, built as an anti-aircraft system and modified to guard against incoming missiles, had little success against Iraqi Scuds.

A Patriot can only knock out an incoming missile near the end of its flight, when the unstable Scud missiles started to break apart. On Israeli radar screens, the disintegrating missiles would appear as clouds of debris, making it impossible to locate the warhead, Israeli officials said.

In contrast, the Arrow is designed to intercept an incoming missile at a high point.

Israel officers said it would be realistic for an Arrow to intercept an incoming Scud at least 30 miles above the ground and 60 miles from the Arrow's launch site. That means the Arrow would in theory hit Scuds while they were high over neighboring Jordan.

In the Gulf War, all the Iraqi missiles had conventional warheads — but the main fear now, as then, is the possibility of a nonconventional attack, including biological and chemical warheads.

However, Martin van Creweld, a military historian, said Saddam was much less likely to fire missiles at Israel in a coming conflict.

Last time, the effort was intended to break up the U.S.-led coalition in 1991, but failed. No such alliance exists today, and Saddam, who was believed to have hundreds of Scud missiles during the Gulf War, now has a much smaller arsenal.

Van Creweld described the Arrow system as a significant technological advance, but sees it as extremely expensive and wasteful for the level of threat Israel faces.

"If it were me, I would rely on the threat of retaliation," said van Creweld, an Israeli. "There is no defense system that is 100 percent effective."

Officials have said eight of nine tests of the Arrow system were successful.

Iraq's Scud missiles must be fired from the country's far western desert to reach Israel, about 370 miles away. Despite this limited launch area, U.S. and British troops were unable to find and destroy a single Scud missile launcher during the 1991 war.

In the early stages of any new U.S. assault, American forces are expected to search western Iraq for missiles and launchers.

The Iraqi missiles can reach Israel in less than eight minutes. Last time around, the Scuds were aimed at Tel Aviv and other cities along Israel's Mediterranean coast, causing extensive damage and injuries, but no deaths.

Saddam did not risk targeting Jerusalem, where the eastern part of the city has many Arab residents and Muslim holy sites.

During the Gulf War, Israel relied on U.S. satellite information about Scud missile launches and often did not get warnings until a missile was less than five minutes away.

Israel now has a radar system that should be able to pinpoint Iraqi missile launches. Israel hopes to have a minimum of five minutes to respond to any attack, and needs two to three minutes to launch an Arrow, air force officials said.

Israel has Patriot batteries, and the air force said it carried out two successful tests of upgraded Patriots on Wednesday.