Iraq: How Will It End?

For a snapshot of the Iraq invasion plus three years, take last Monday.

In the aftermath of a deadly car bomb attack on a Shiite neighborhood in Baghdad, renewed fear of civil war and more killing surfaced.

CBS Sunday Morning correspondent Martha Teichner focuses on last Monday because it was also the day President Bush launched his latest campaign to rally support for staying the course in Iraq.

"The situation is still tense and we're still seeing acts of sectarian violence and reprisal, yet out of this crisis we've also seen signs of a hopeful future.

Such signs include the swearing-in of the new democratically-elected Iraqi parliament this past week after 12 million Iraqis turned out to vote in December's election.

Also, the U.S. Department of Defense reported that more than 240,000 Iraqi security forces and police are now trained and equipped to fight the insurgency.

That's the good news.

The bad news: during the last three months, based on press reports, on average there are 75 insurgent attacks a day.

A few weeks after Saddam Hussein's statue came down, the number of insurgents, thought then to be 5,000 maximum, is now estimated to be at least 20,000.

When President Bush made his "Mission Accomplished" speech nearly three years ago, more than 7 out of 10 Americans approved his handling of Iraq, according to a CBS News poll.

In a new poll, out last week, just over 3 in 10 did.

Asked whether the war has been worth the cost, 70 percent of those polled said no.

There are multiple costs.

The cost in lives: more than 2,300 American servicemen and women, as of Saturday, and at least 30,000 Iraqi civilians. And the wounded, more than 17,000 Americans.

The cost in taxpayer dollars: nearly $250 billion so far -- that's $6 billion a month.

There was a time when the administration was predicting that Iraq would subsidize its own reconstruction.

"We realize this is a country which has a resource and it's obvious. It's oil and it can bring in and does bring in a certain amount of revenue each year," Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage confidently said in 2003.

Not enough.

Iraq's oil infrastructure has been sabotaged non-stop, nearly 300 times in 3 years. Prewar production was 2 ½ million barrels a day. It's still half a million short. Oil smuggling is rampant and Iraq's finance minister said as much as half the smugglers' profits are going to fund the insurgents.

Iraq is one big bad news /good news story. We've built 45 schools and rebuilt 2,800. We've refurbished 110 health clinics and immunized practically every small child in the country. Before the war just over 800,000 people had telephones in Iraq. Now, it's 4.6 million, mostly cell phones.

But, Baghdad only averages 8 hours of electricity a day compared to pretty much all the time before the war. On the other hand, the rest of Iraq averages 12 now, often double what it had before.

The United States went to Iraq looking for weapons of mass destruction. The bad news: we didn't find any. The good news: we did catch Saddam.

On trial, Hussein was ranting from the witness stand last week that American troops would be "swept out as the garbage they have become."

"We will complete the mission. We will leave behind a democracy that can govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself," said President Bush.

It's no cliché to say, the world is watching. American prestige and influence are on the line, not to mention President Bush's legacy. The fledgling democracy Americans are dying for could become an Iran-style Islamic theocracy.

If we get it wrong is there a risk? Could the entire Middle East could blow up?

Whether we stay in Iraq or leave, three years and counting, what is far from clear is whether, in the end, the Iraq story will be the good news or the bad news.