<i>Primary Colors</i>
From the pen of CBS News Correspondent Eric Engberg comes the political thriller all America has been clamoring for: The senator did quite well in the California primary. Or did he? Read on as the horror of one man's triumph-turned-nightmare builds to a spine-tingling, pulse-pounding climax.
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Dan Schnur and Ken Khachigian, veterans of many California political battles, came to the conclusion about the same time - someone would have to call the senator and tell him, even if it meant waking him up.
The transcontinental arithmetic came automatically to them. It was 2 a.m in San Diego, where they had spent the night watching the networks tally the Super Tuesday primary returns; it was 5 in the morning in Alexandria, Virginia, where John McCain had decided to stand election night watch. The candidate, normally reticent about celebrations, had excitedly pounded the armrest of his chair at the results from the other 15 primary and caucus states. For a while, California had looked like it was in the bag, too. If that trend continued, he and Bush would be in a dead heat as they headed into the final round of primaries. No, the senator was not going to like this phone call.
Schnur, the crew-cut, boyish press secretary, tried to let the blockbuster fall gently, "We are now confident we are going to win the popular vote out here. The independents are breaking for us big time, just as they have been in the other states. But we aren't going to get a single one of the 162 delegates. Just like I've been telling you, senator, this state gave the rest of America the Hula-Hoop. Now it's invented the win-lose primary."
Khachigian, the professional consultant who had been fighting political battles since Nixon, was quick to grab the phone to offer the candidate the one formula that might give him some hope. "Senator, I'm going to go home to get two hours sleep. Then I'm coming back to start working on our war plan. The Battle of California is just starting."
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It was probably Warren Rudman's wartime experience as an infantry officer in Korea that led him to like and trust McCain. Rudman felt a kinship for politicians who had been tested in combat. The walls of his law office were now lined with their pictures. As a New Hampshire senator turned Washington political-legal eminence, Rudman had been serving as an all-purpose adviser to the McCain campaign. Now he was being asked to oversee the fight over California delegates. "It's no big deal for you, Warren," McCain had needled, "It's probably just the nomination, that's all. Try not to louse it up, OK"
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As someone who had been a prosecutor and congressional investigator, Rudman knew the value of research. He had drawn on scores of brains from the McCain staff and from his own collection of associates to figure out how to turn the win-lose California mess into a win-win. Today, 16 of these key staffers would hold their decision meeting.
Schnur, a Californian who had been press secretary to Gov. Pete Wilson and had managed to retain his sense of humor, briefed the overview. He had brought some large charts along to help everyone follow. He did not bring a Hula-Hoop, although he conceded it might help.
"Four years ago, California voters used their power under the state's initiative system to pass a change in the election laws. It was mainly moderates in our party who were behind it. The initiative required that any eligible voter could vote in any primary election. Party registration was no longer a qualifier. Democrats could vote in Republican primaries and vice versa. Most importantly, independents could vote in either party's nominating elections.
"The idea was to get so many independents voting in Republican primaries for state office and Congress that the right wing would lose some of its power. The old-line establishments in both parties fought this initiative tooth and nail, but it passed at the polls anyhow. So they went to court to overturn it, but they lost. Then the national parties squawked that this openness violated their own rules for choosing a presidential nominee, because it let in voters from the opposite party. As you know, there has been a trend in the country to open primaries to non-party members; 34 states do it. But no other big state goes quite as far as California in permitting crossovers. Consequently, the Republican and Democratic parties threatened to exclude California delegates from the nominating conventions. The California legislature responded by passing a law that sets up a dual primary.
"Under this law, every voter gets a ballot that has all the nominees from all the parties on it. They can range all over this ballot like ants. The election officials in the 58 counties tabulate these votes, and release the winners. Not much exciting or unique so far."
There were a few muttered remarks about "La-la land," accompanied by the usual chuckles. But Rudman saw that everyone was paying attention. They all knew what was at stake. Schnur put a new chart on the ease.
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"Remember, only the votes of registered party members are used to pick delegates to the presidential nominating conventions. So, the ballots are color-coded by party registration: red for Democrats, green for Republicans, blue for independents, or whatever. While they are tabulating the total, all-inclusive primary, the election officials keep a second set of totals on how the registered Republicans vote in the Republican primary. Same thing for the D's. Those are the figures that the two parties use in determining who won the delegates."
A long pause. Everyone knew what was coming next, but Schnur still had to say it.
"McCain won the overall vote - sometimes called a beauty contest - 52 percent to 48 percent. But 600,000 of his votes came from independents and registered Democrats. Among registered Republicans, Bush got a slight plurality. So, under the state law and the GOP rules, Bush wins all 162 California delegates. That, by the way, is the biggest prize of all ... one-fourth the total needed to nominate. As Dubya Bush might put it, 'If California was a state, it would be the largest state in the union.'"
From the back of the room one of the lawyers - who had been drafted for his litigation, not political skills - asked what he thought was a good question. "But McCain only lost the vote among Republicans by a few points. When that happened in Colorado on March 10, he still got a share of delegates. What's going on?"
Khachigian, who had flown in from San Diego for the meeting, shook his head. He thought, "To the amateur all things are possible, to the professional only a few."
He stood up. "California is different in a lot of ways. Its primary is winner-take-all. You win the eligible voters by one vote, you get all the delegates. The Democrats have a rule against that. We don't. We're screwed."
Rudman, quick as ever, interjected, "But not without a screwdriver. Or maybe a monkey wrench. Mark, it's your turn."
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Mark Buse (as in Bue-see) had taken leave from his job at the Senate Commerce Committee to join the campaign staff, where he would assist McCain with delicate tasks. He had once been known as "The Ferret" for his ability to uncover pork-barrel spending proposals in complex appropriations bills. For four days, since the California disaster, he and a group of youthful Ferret wannabes had been studying the history of political conventions, looking for useful lessons.
"In both parties, the presidential nomination has from time to time hinged on a challenge to delegates based on the claim that they were unfairly selected. And California has often ben the battleground. In 1972, a coalition of Democrats opposed to the nomination of George McGovern tried to basically steal half the California delegation from him because the Democrats in the state were then still using winner take all. McGovern got some favorable rulings from the party chairman, Larry O'Brien, who was afraid the McGovern lefty delegates would make a huge ugly scene if they were blatantly cheated out of their victory, and that the country would see this on television.
"McGovern's floor leaders then engineered a very clever set of maneuvers to support O'Brien's rulings. Some of you may remember the famous 'California Challenge,' where Willie Brown stood at the podium and yelled, 'Give me back my delegation,' grabbing the high road for the McGovern forces. It was one of the most memorable convention scenes of the last 30 years.
"In our party, it's often forgotten that Eisenhower's nomination at Chicago in 1952 was a near thing. Senator Taft of Ohio owned the conservative wing of the party, and his pals in Texas, where the Republican party was small, clannish and run from the top down, had assembled a totally Taft delegation without bothering with niceties like voting. Ike's strategists offered what they cleverly called the 'Fair Play Amendment' to open up the delegations to some Eisenhower people. They got two important Californians, Richard Nixon and Earl Warren, to help push it. They won key votes on the convention floor. The seating of the Eisenhower Texas delegates locked it up for Ike.
"As far as our current situation is concerned," Buse concluded, "I think the thing to remember is a state party's delegation selection procedures can be reversed at the convention. And the best way to do this often is to raise the issue of fairness. Then put the vote on national television, where establishment regulars don't want to be shown looking like slimy hacks."
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It was Bill McInturff's turn to speak. The bearded pollster had a sheaf of papers in his hand from the overnight tracking polls. "If you ask the average American if it's 'fair' for John McCain to win the popular vote in California but not be awarded any delegates, 78 percent say no. Voters are very touchy about the sanctity of the ballot. And if McCain makes a few speeches - let's say in such upcoming primary states as Illinois, North Carolina, Indiana and even Texas - he could get some traction with the voters there. It would build on itself because his natural base is people that don't trust political insiders. People understand stuff like jiggering around with rules to lock independent voters out of the process, then denying a winner a win ... Hell, that's stuff right out of Mr. Smith Goes to Washington."
"Thank you, Frank Capra," Rudman responded with a grin. "But ou're right, we have an issue that we can talk about, and people will listen. Then, when we get to Philadelphia we take it all the way to the floor. The key votes will probably be on arcane procedural matters, like whether the challenged California delegates should be allowed to vote on the issue of their own seating. That's the way it's been in the past. We need to start getting ready for those fights right now. But it's distinctly do-able." He stood up. "Boys and girls, I think we're in for a very interesting convention."
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