Politics

Incumbents Rule In House Races

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

October 19, 1998 / 1:44 PM EDT / CBS

The 1998 midterm election shows signs of matching the outcome of the 1986 election, when, during the sixth year of the Reagan presidency, the GOP gained five seats.

Although the Republican gain may exceeed five seats, a dramatic change in the division of the House is unlikely.

Most incumbents seem on the road to re-election, while 18 highly competitive open seats (incumbents retiring) will determine whether either party can score gains on Nov. 3.

In the aftermath of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, there is still little reason to believe that many Democratic incumbents will lose. The Republicans won most of the close contests in 1996, leaving fewer Democratic targets in this election. Even fewer Republican incumbents are seriously threatened.

Since 1978, more than 90 percent of incumbents in both parties seeking re-election have prevailed with one exception. That was in 1994, when 34 Democratic incumbents weakened by the House Bank scandal and low presidential job approval ratings were ousted. This year, election observers say, more than 95 percent of all incumbents will win.

Several factors account for the near invincibility of incumbents from both parties:

A sizable financial disparity in favor of incumbents of both parties, but particularly the Republicans. GOP incumbents have raised far more money that their Democratic challengers.
Democratic incumbents who have served two terms also appear safe this year for the most part. Only 12 were re-elected in 1996 with a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent.
Redistricting, which has been favorable to incumbents in both parties.
The vitality of the national economy.

Nevertheless, there are a few Republicans incumbents who won narrow victories in 1996 and are again in close races in 1998. Sixteen Republicans and 8 Democrats face competitive challenges this year.

Throughout the 20th century, the party controlling the White House has gained seats in midterm elections only once: In 1934, the second year of the Roosevelt Administration, in the midst of a depression.

Not since the presidency of James Monroe has a party in power gained seats in the sixth year of an incumbent presidency. Since 1958, moreover, the average loss for the president's party has been 27 seats.

Perhaps the long-term trends are outmoded today. Looking at the last three mid-term elections, the party holding the presidency lost less than 10 seats.

What could change the conventional wisdom? Several potential impediments keep Democratic strategists awake at night:

An uninspired Democratic base - turnout in non-presidential elections generally favors the Republicans.
A late media blitz propelled by a massive Republican spending advantage.
Repressed anger expressed by alienated voters, undetected by conventional polling.

When we examine the 1998 elections on a race-by-race basis, the Republicans stand to gain to 10 seats. Here is a breakdown of the key races to watch:

Open Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

California 3: Sandie Dunn (D), Doug Ose (R)
California 36: Janice Hahn (D), Steve Kuykendall (R)
Colorado 2: Mark Udall (D), Bob Greenlee (R)
Illinois 19: Dave Phelps (D), Brent Winters (R)
Indiana 9: Baron Hill (D), Jean Leising(R)
Kentucky 6: Ernesto Scorsone (D), Ernest Fletcher (R)
North Carolina 8: Mike Taylor (D), Robin Hayes (R)
Oregon 1: David Wu (D), Molly Bordonaro (R)
Pennsylvania 15: Roy Afflerbach (D), Patrick Toomey (R)

Open Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

California 1: Mike Thompson (D), Mark Luce (R)
Idaho 2: Richard Stallings (D) Mike Simpson (R)
Kentucky 4: Ken Lucas (D), Gex Williams (R)
Mississippi 4: Ronnie Shows (D), Delbert Hoseman (R)
Nevada 1: Shelley Berkley (D), Don Chairez (R)
Pennsylvania 10: Patrick Casey (D), Donald Sherwood (R) Washington 3: Brian Baird (D), Don Benton (R)
Wisconsin 1: Lydia Spottswood (D), Paul Ryan (R)
Wisconsin 2: Tammy Baldwin (D), Josephine Musser (R)

Democratic-held seats:

California 20: Calvin Dooley (D), Cliff Unruh (R)
California 22: Lois Capps (D), Tom Bordonaro (R)
California 24: Brad Sherman (D), Randy Hoffman (R)
California 42: George Brown, Jr. (D), Elia Perozi (R)
California 46: Loretta Sanchez (D), Bob Dornan (R)
Connecticut 5: Jim Maloney (D), Mark Nielsen (R)
Hawaii 1: Neil Abercrombie (D), Gene Ward (R)
Illinois 17: Lane Evans (D), Mark Baker (R)
Indiana 10: Julia Carson (D), Gary Hofmeister (R)
Iowa 3: Leonard Boswell (D), Larry McKibben (R)
Massachusetts 6: John Tierney (D), Peter Torkildsen (R)
Michigan 1: Bart Stupak (D) Michelle McManus (R)
Michigan 12: Sander Levin (D), Leslie Touma (R)
Minnesota 4: Bruce Vento (D) Dennis Newinski (R)
New York 26: Maurice Hinchey (D) Bud Walker (R) Randall Terry (RTL)
New York 29: John LaFalce (D) Chris Collins (R)
North Carolina 2: Bobby Etheridge (D), Dan Page (R)
North Carolina 4: David Price (D), Tom Roberg (R)
Ohio 6: Ted Strickland (D), Nancy Hollister (R)
Oregon 5: Darlene Hooley (D), Marilyn Shannon (R)
Texas 9: Nick Lampson (D) Tom Cottar (R)
Texas 17: Charles Stenholm (D), Rudy Izzard (R)
Washington 9: Adam Smith (D) Ron Taber (R)
Wisconsin 8: Jay Johnson (D), Mark Green (R)

Republican-held seats:

Arizona 6: J.D. Hayworth (R) Steve Owens (D)
California 27: James Rogan (R) Barry Gordon (D)
California 49: Christine Kehoe (D), Brian Bilbray (R)
Idaho 1: Dan Willims (D), Helen Chenoweth (R)
Iowa 2: James Nussle (R) Rob Tully (D)
Indiana 8: Gail Reicken (D), John Hostettler (R)
Kansas 3: Dennis Moore (D), Vince Snowbarger (R)
Kentucky 3: Anne Northup (R) Chris Gorman (D)
Louisiana 6: Richard Baker (R) Marjorie McKeithen (D)
Montana 1: Rick Hill (R) Robert Deschamps (D)
New Mexico 1: Phil Maloof (D), Heather Wilson (R), Robert Anderson (G)
New Mexico 3: Tom Udall (D), Bill Redmond (R), Carol Miller (G)
Ohio 1: Roxanne Qualls (D), Steve Chabot (R)
Pennsylvania 13: Joe Hoeffel (D), Jon Fox (R)
Texas 13: Ron Paul (R) Loy Sneary (D)
Utah 2: Lily Eskelsen (D), Merrill Cook (R)
Washington 1: Jay Inslee (D), Rick White (R), Bruce Craswell (AH)