In California and Arkansas Races, It Pays to Be on the Outside

Republican California Gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman may be the billionaire former CEO of eBay who has already shattered primary and personal spending records, but her role as an "outsider" may serve to her advantage as the backlash against the "establishment" grows, CBS News Chief Political Consultant Marc Ambinder said Monday.

In a new weekly series on Washington Unplugged, Ambinder is breaking down this year's buzzworthy races. Of Whitman, Ambinder said, "She doesn't have much of a political background, which is to her benefit in a year when politics is seen as poisonous."

Whitman's "outsider" role stands in sharp contrast to the likely Democratic candidate, attorney general and political mainstay Jerry Brown, known to many Californians as "Governor Moonbeam." Brown was the state's two-time Governor from 1975-1983.

According to Ambinder, "You're going to have a classic case, perhaps the template of a Republican running as a can-do, pragmatic problem-solver against an established politician who is able to really rouse the Democratic base. It's going to be a very interesting, very close race."

Another race to keep an eye on is the Democratic Senate primary battle in Arkansas, where incumbent Blanche Lincoln is fighting for her seat against Lt. Governor Bill Halter, a darling of the left who served in the Clinton administration.

Ambinder notes, "You have essentially a referendum on what the Democratic party thinks about health care and also whether voters at large are willing to countenance a candidate who runs aggressively on the idea that health care was a good thing in a Conservative state like Arkansas."

When CBS News' Sharyl Attkisson asked Ambinder if he thinks Lincoln would lose in the primary, he said, "I wouldn't have said so a couple of weeks ago but he campaign has made a series of mistakes."

Halter's "campaign has raised a lot more money that I had expected and I've got to tell you labor unions who are apoplectic at Blanche Lincoln are doing everything they possibly can to help Bill Halter and I think that may turn the tide," he added.