Hillary's 50-50 Shot At Presidency

This story was written by CBSNews.com's Christine Lagorio

But the prospect of another Clinton march on the White House is no dream. Experts tell CBSNews.com that all signs point to an '08 run by Hillary.

"I'd be shocked if she didn't run," said Chuck Todd, editor of the National Journal's political news digest Hotline.

Clinton, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and John Edwards are now the Democratic Party's most visible presidential could-bes. When matched in national polls, Clinton takes command. In a late-April Marist College survey, 40 percent of Democrats favored Clinton for the nomination. Kerry trailed with 18 percent, while Edwards picked up 16 percent.

Not that the polls necessarily offer hope and happiness to the junior senator from New York. She comes out on the losing end of match-ups with GOP could-bes like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. And Clinton's negatives are nothing to write home to Chappaqua about. Forty-one percent of U.S. voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton in a February Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll.

Nevertheless, many strategists say it's almost inevitable that Clinton will jump into the race: She's far and away the Democrats' best known name; she has a natural and widespread constituency (not to mention a well-oiled network of staff and advisers dispersed across the country); and she has enormous fundraising ability.

In fact, Clinton's fiscal prowess might serve to narrow the field of Democratic contenders. Her '06 Senate campaign raised almost $4 million in the past year and has $8.7 million on hand. Could a governor without a PAC network or party support – say, Iowa's Tom Vilsack or New Mexico's Bill Richardson – compete?

Hillary watchers who believe her every move is dictated by political ambition view the senator's increasingly middle-of-the-road political profile as a White House strategy.

"She could say something about grass growing and someone would interpret it as her making an appeal to states where grass grows," said the Hotline's Todd.

But her friends say the voters are simply seeing the person they've know all along – religious, practical and centrist.

Whatever the reason, Clinton has collaborated with conservatives, called for a "common ground" on abortion and cut a political figure some on the left see as decidedly un-liberal.

Clinton made her debut in the Senate Armed Services Committee four years ago, and has never voted against any major Iraq military spending legislation. She's been surprisingly hawkish for a woman perceived as a card-carrying liberal by friend and foe alike.

Clinton has also taken two high-profile trips to Iraq – journeys that may have helped to strengthen the credentials of a senator with no military background or experience.

"Her Senate actions look to shore up Democratic weaknesses: national security, religion and social issues, while holding to the party mainstream on economic issues," said Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution.

"This isn't a matter of altering positions. She's been consistent on this," Mann added.

Clinton consistently votes Democratic on most social issues – she regularly racks up 90-plus ratings on the scorecards of liberal groups like Americans for Democratic Action, NAACP and the Human Rights Campaign.

If there has been a shift to the right, its most publicized moment came when she referred to abortion as "a sad, even tragic choice to many, many women" while addressing a crowd of the pro-choice faithful in Albany, N.Y., on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade.

The speech prompted columnists, analysts and fellow members of Congress to raise a collective eyebrow. Even New York Rep. Pete King, a Republican with whom Clinton has an amiable relationship (he was the one cracking "Hillary for Pope" jokes) said her words commanded attention.

"It was a different tone on abortion; more muted, almost apologetic," he said, followed by, without a beat: "I have no doubt she's running for president."

In the Senate, Clinton often chooses to work with the Democratic Party's self-appointed conscience, Joe Lieberman. And in March, she crossed party lines to team up with conservative Sen. Rick Santorum to call for legislation that would study the effects of violence in the media on children.

The official line on all this is that Clinton is looking no farther than her Senate re-election.

"People tend to speculate about her aspirations, but she's keeping her eye on the ball, and that's November of 2006," said Clinton advisor Howard Wolfson. He referred to all the chatter about a Clinton reappearance in the White House as "background noise."

But Clinton, who says she's "always been a praying person," seems to be moving into the territory John Edwards had hoped to claim as the moderate Democrat who cares about average Americans.

As a result, there's a fairly widespread feeling that Clinton's brand of liberal lite may play well in swing states she'll need to capture in order to defeat the GOP candidate.

And a number of political strategists think there's a decent chance Clinton can pull it all off.

Joe Trippi, a veteran Democratic consultant, shares the popular idea that all of Clinton's cards are in order for the Democratic nomination.

"If she decides to go [for the party nomination], she's got a great chance of going the whole way," Trippi said.

Trippi said it simply wouldn't make much sense for Clinton not to capitalize on her own political momentum. And if she does, the presidency would be a toss up.

"The rule is, if you can get the nomination for a major party for president of the United States, you run. That's not something you walk away from," he said. "Given how polarized this country is right now, it's a 50/50 proposition."

But dangers abound for the nascent Clinton candidacy:

Gender

Just 62 percent of voters nationwide said they think the country is ready for a woman to become president in 2008, according to a February poll by Siena College. This could prove to be a formidable glass ceiling for a Clinton candidacy. No woman has ever before emerged as a serious threat to capture her party's presidential nomination and perhaps the White House as well. So Clinton is sailing into uncharted waters, with no comfortable historical markers or precedents to guide the journey.

The Bill Factor

The most intriguing wildcard in the Clinton presidential deck is her husband. If people aren't all sure they're ready for a woman president, it's hard to say how they'd react to the idea of electing the wife of a former commander in chief.

While Bill and Hillary talk constantly about politics, they've been careful to keep her role as senator distinct and their joint public appearances are relatively rare. The spouse issue is a delicate one, as the Clintons have learned repeatedly.

During Bill Clinton's second presidential campaign, Hillary famously retreated from her role as get-two-for-one policy adviser and shifted into cookie-baking mode. Her disastrous experience as head of her husband's health care task force reinforced the impression that American voters weren't comfortable with a First Lady as policy maker. No one knows what they'd expect of a First Husband.

Will voters embrace Mr. Clinton as a symbol of the good old days of prosperity at home and peace abroad? Or will they recoil at the idea of sending the oral sexmeister back to the White House, even if it's only to an office in the East Wing?

The GOP

Conservatives are already beating the war drums and won't stand idly by as a Clinton-for-president campaign gains momentum. Some in the party already view Clinton as a formidable threat to continued Republican control of the White House.

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina — a prime mover in the impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton – thinks Hillary could win every state John Kerry did, and then some. To Republicans who think a Clinton run might polarize voters in a way that would benefit their candidate, he has this piece of advice: "Be careful what you wish for."

Republican operative Arthur Finkelstein has already launched a "Stop Her Now" campaign and Judicial Watch – a longtime tormentor of the Clintons – has also swung into action. The group wants the Senate to open an ethics investigation in the case of a former Clinton fundraiser charged with understating the cost of a lavish 2000 Clinton bash in Hollywood.

The criminal trial of ex-finance director David Rosen is just getting under way in Los Angeles. Rosen, who has pleaded not guilty, is accused of claiming the fundraiser cost $400,000 when the real cost was more than $1 million.

Clinton's detractors are hoping evidence presented at the trial will provide enough fuel for a Hillary bonfire, but even if that isn't the case, Sen. Clinton can expect a steady stream of fire on her right flank as long as she's seen as a threat to capture the White House.

In her memoir, "Living History," Clinton writes, "The most difficult decisions I have made in my life were to stay married to Bill and to run for Senate from New York."

Now she has another.

By Christine Lagorio