Gore's Florida Gamble

Vice President Al Gore threw himself into the mosh pit of Elian politics when he came out in favor of granting the six-year-old Cuban boy permanent resident status in the United States.

Gore knew he was crossing a minefield. That's probably why his announcement came out on paper, and just before a previously scheduled day off. His statement urging Congress to "grant permanent resident status to Elian, his father, stepmother, half-brother, grandmothers and grandfather, so that this case can be adjudicated properly," put him at odds with his boss, President Clinton, whose administration wants the boy returned to his father in Cuba.

Gore, instead, has parachuted into Miami's Cuban-American camp, which has vociferously resisted any move to send the boy back.

The White House, at least publicly, appeared to take Gore's defection in stride. "The president fully appreciates the support that the vice president has shown to him over time and thinks it's understandable that he will have differing points of view from time to time as he runs for president on his own," said White House spokesman Jake Siewert.

So was this a purely political move on Gore's part? "Absolutely," says Dr. James P. Monroe, a professor of political science at the University of Miami. "I don't think you can read it any other way, given the importance of Florida."

With its 25 electoral votes in November's general election, the fourth highest total in the nation, Florida might seem a natural for George W. Bush, whose brother, Jeb, is the state's governor. But the Gore campaign won't concede the Sunshine state. "I think what they want to get out of this is to make Florida competitive," Monroe says.

Winning Florida means winning at least a respectable number of votes in Miami's Cuban-American community, which is at the center of the Elian storm and which tends to vote Republican.

A spokesman for the Miami Gonzalez clan said that Gore's views were "encouraging." But it's at least possible that some Little Havana residents will perceive Gore's stance as a political one, intended to benefit himself and perhaps no one else.

It's not clear that Gore has done himself any favors with the rest of the nation's Hispanic voters. Brent Wilkes, the executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens, says the switch brings no clear benefit to Gore - "in fact, it may even hurt."

Bush twitted Gore for tardiness on the issue, and let fly a longer string of criticisms while campaigning in Wisconsin on Friday. "I'm concerned Al Gore's sudden change of position may have more to do with his own political interests than the best interests of Elian Gonzalez," Bush said soberly.

But the governor thinks Gore can shed the taint of expediency if he acts now. Bush wants Gore to press the Clinton administration to rescind its vow to send Elian home, and allow him to stay in the U.S. until the Florida court decide his case. "The vice president frequently touts his experience and influence," Bush said. "We'll see how serious and intent he is."

"Gore gave (Bush) that opening," says Monroe. Anytime Gore criticizes President Clinton, he leaves open the question of what he intends to do about it. (Remember Bill Bradley urging Gore to march into the Oval Office and tell the president to end racial profiling right now?) But Gore needs to show, every now and again, that he's his own man, and not, as Bush wants you to believe, Bill Clinton, Part Deux.

"It's a good thing to develop yourself as a candidate, but there are certain risks involved, and Bush's criticism illustrates one of those risks," Monroe observes.

Another risk is that Gore's fellow Democrats will get thrown off stride.

Rep. Maxine Waters of California was dismayed when she heard about Gore's statement, and said she might reconsider her endorsement of him. "It was stunning," said Waters. "My first thoughts were that it was political. And if it was, I would have difficulty continuing to support him, because if he was going whichever way the political winds were blowing, it would lead me to believe that, in any crisis, he could not be counted on."

But the vice president quickly went into damage control mode, calling Waters and explaining that he'd always wanted Elian to exhaust every legal possibility in the U.S. courts before going home. He said he wouldn't object to returning Elian to Cuba, as long as due process had been carried out.

"This was a principled position which Al Gore has had from the beginning," says Todd Webster, a Gore spokesman. Gore had already said he believed Elian's was a custody case, not an immigration one, and that he wanted to see due process.

As for whether it's a political matter, Webster says, "Al Gore plans to take on George W. Bush in Florida over a number of issues, including how Bush's risky tax cuts would impact Social Security, Medicare, health care and education. Not over Elian Gonzalez."

Waters accepts Gore's explanation, though she still disagrees with him. "He convinced me" that this was not a political decision, she says, "and that's why I decided to continue to support him."

Well, that's one vote he can count on. But whether the rest of the country takes his explanation at face value, or even cares, is another question.