GOP's California Dream
As Republicans vow to lure Latinos away from the Democratic party this election year, they may find the real test will be in California, home to a third of the nation's burgeoning Hispanic population. According to a new statewide poll, Latinos still feel the sting of former Republican Governor Pete Wilson's administration, but presidential front-runner George W. Bush may be able to dodge that legacy.
The enduring hostility toward Wilson and his support of Proposition 187, which would have banned benefits for illegal immigrants, was evident when pollsters asked voters if they still held a negative opinion toward him. Seventy-three percent answered yes.
The poll of 604 registered Latino voters, co-sponsored by the Spanish-language newspaper La Opinion and the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, shows Vice President Al Gore leading Bush by a 30 points, 56 percent to 26 percent. The poll also shows Republican candidates for Congress and state offices fared poorly against Democratic candidates, trailing 14 percent to 65 percent.
"Republicans have a lot of work to do in California," says Rosalind Gold, senior director of the nonpartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. But, she says, "there is a real mix of issues" that are important to the 10 million Latinos who live in California, and not all of them favor Democrats.
Read Part One of Theresa Bujnoch's series on the increasing influence of Hispanic voters: Power With a Latino Accent.
When asked about the issues they consider most important when considering a presidential candidate, voters named universal health care (86 percent), strong gun control (81 percent) and increases in immigration (79 percent) as top priorities. Those policies are traditionally associated with Democrats. But Latino voters also expressed strong support for school vouchers (75 percent) and opposition to legal abortion (64 percent) two issues that typically help conservative Republican candidates.
"You can't assume the Hispanic community is monolithic in either direction," says Gold.
Another poll last month conducted by the Public Policy Institute (PPIC), shows Bush faring better among California Latinos. The statewide survey shows Latinos favor Gore (38 percent) over Bush (27 percent), Bradley (6 percent) and McCain (5 percent). The survey said Bush has the support of four in 10 Latinos against Gore and Bradley.
"Bush could be evading the backlash [of Proposition 187]," says Gregory Rodriguez, a fellow at the New America Foundation, a nonpartisan public-policy think tank.
Rodriguez says if Bush can win at least 35 percent of the Hispanic vote, he can erase the anti-GP sentiment of the past six years in California.
Republican leaders say their message here will include the same themes of inclusiveness and opportunity that have appealed to Hispanic voters in other parts of the country.
Rodriguez believes such a message will be popular and warns that Democrats are "in a rut" when it comes to campaigning for Latino votes, especially in California.
Eventually the "bogeyman loses his strength," says Rodriguez. "Democrats haven't come up with a post-Wilson strategy."