GOP's Balancing Act

John McCain may have uttered his straightest talk when he called his campaign a "high-wire act" this week. That's because to win the next major GOP presidential primaries - including California on March 7 - he'll be working without a net.

To survive, he must start winning over the registered Republicans who will determine the outcome in states with closed primaries.

Political scientist Sherry Bebitch Jeffe calls it a "delicate balancing act."

"It is to win over Republicans and reassert his conservative bona fides without alienating the moderate, independent swing voters who brought him into real contention," says Jeffe, who teaches at California's Claremont University.

Moderates could help McCain beat Bush in California's blanket primary, in which votes for all presidential candidates are tallied. But Republicans will determine who wins the state's delegates to the August convention.

Jeffe envisions a two-tiered campaign here, with the candidates opting to appear more moderate and inclusive publicy, while privately targeting conservatives through phone calls, mailers and surrogates.

"The blanket primary, the beauty contest, will be fought out on the airwaves. The fight for Republican delegates will be fought out under the radar screen."

But Republican pollster Ed Goeas says McCain must make direct appeals to Republicans. "You can't do that under the surface," he says.

Goeas downplays the role of Democrats in the Republican primary, because they are more liberal than those in Michigan and less inclined to cross over. He also thinks Democrats and independents are attracted to McCain, in part, because of disillusionment with the Clinton administration and the excitement of the GOP horserace. Goeas says Bush still has a chance with them: "Both McCain and Bush have a message that appeals to a majority of voters."

But some campaign watchers say George Bush faces a dilemma, too - how to hang on to conservative voters while trying to chip away at McCain's support base of moderates. That may be harder to do after the candidate's move to the right in South Carolina

Longtime GOP strategist Sal Russo doesn't see it as a problem. He says Bush has proven he can appear inclusive before, and can do so again. "(Bush) will try to regain the ground he had. There's no question he was conservative, but also tolerant."

Russo and Goeas discourage placing too much emphasis on the impact of the beauty contest results. They don't think the California Republican Party will adjust the outcome of the primary even if Bush should lose the popular vote.

But Michael Alvarez, who researches voting behavior, at the California Institute of Technology, sees it differently. "Bush and his campaign advisors have their eyes on the wrong prize."

He believes Bush alienated McCain supporters further when he appeared in California right after the Michigan primary. Th Texas governor criticized McCain for reaching out to Democrats and independents.

"When voters cross over in the primary, they tend to vote the same way in the fall." says Alvarez. "The prize should be the general election in November."