GOP Death Wish?

Does this sound familiar? The Clinton administration does something controversial. Republicans in Congress start screaming. Polls show most Americans aren't bothered by what the administration did. The Republicans keep screaming. They decide to hold hearings, though polls show Americans don't want hearings. But the Republicans keep screaming and hold them anyway.

That's the scenario unfolding in Washington now, as Republican senators, swathed in indignation, charge ahead with hearings into the Elian Gonzalez raid, despite opposition across the aisle and across the country.

Virtually every poll conducted since Saturday's dramatic events shows Americans support the raid and the reunion of the boy and his father. And a new ABC News poll shows 65 percent of Americans are opposed to congressional hearings. Furthermore, 52 percent of those polled disapprove of how Republicans are handling the case, versus just 25 percent who give the GOP a thumbs up.

Sen. Bob Smith (R-N.H.) dismissed the Elian polls, saying they don't matter and he doesn't pay attention to polls anyway. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.) disputes the poll findings: "I don't believe that the American people approved of the kind of action they saw Saturday morning."

But Americans may approve even less of hearings that appear partisan. One Republican consultant moaned, "Congress is going to blow it again, just like they did with the impeachment," when Republicans lost seats as voters registered their disgust with the GOP's pursuit of the president. Another fumed, "It is absolutely ludicrous to have hearings. It's just chest-pounding and partisan rancor."

Ed Goeas is a Republican pollster who believes the Miami raid needs to be investigated, but he isn't sure congressional hearings are the best venue for that. He noted that the GOP leadership has "to be careful not to be perceived as doing this for political reasons." Given the polls, Goeas argues, it's clear the Republicans are holding hearings as a matter of principle, not politics, but they still need to battle perception. If the Republican investigation "starts taking on an air of Clinton bashing for the sake of Clinton bashing, then it can be seen as political."

Scott Howell, who does consulting work for a number of Republicans, says the raid was a mistake, but so are the hearings. He believes voters are tired of the constant bickering between Republicans and Democrats in Washington. "From a Republican perspective, it doesn't serve us or do anyone any good to hold hearings. There ought to be closed-door meetings and a sincere bipartisan effort to enlighten Republicans as to what went on."

"Too many of the Republican leadership people are in safely Republican districts with no swing voters," says Charlie Cook, a political analyst who keeps a close eye on congressional races. "All they're hearing from is partisans, and those aren't the people wo are going to decide this election." And those swing voters, Cook adds, "are all investigated out. The impeachment was the last straw."

Capitol Hill Republicans ought to take their cue from George W. Bush, suggests Cook. Bush rarely mentions Elian, and instead talks about education and the economy and health care - issues votes care about.

But voters have short memories. Jonathan Grella, a spokesman for the National Republican Senate Committee, says, "I don't believe this issue will impact Senate elections across the board, with the exception of Florida," where it's likely to help the GOP.

"Five and a half months is a long time," Cook says. "They're going to have hearings, and exacerbate wounds, and then probably have the sense to move on, so I don't think this will have a big impact."