Giuliani Hits The Skids

Quick, what's the first thing you think of when you hear the name Rudy Giuliani?

After the phrase "Mayor of New York City," more and more New York voters are thinking of unpleasant things like police brutality, racism and highhanded arrogance, according to a new CBS News-New York Times poll. That explains in part why Democrat Hillary Clinton, his rival for New York's open Senate seat, has squeaked ahead of the Republican mayor and now enjoys a slight lead in several polls.

The poll of New York voters gives Clinton a 49 to 41 percent lead. That follows other polls this week with similar findings: a Quinnipiac College poll gave the first lady 46 percent to Giuliani's 43 percent, while a Siena College poll put both candidates at 38 percent. Just over a month ago, he led in every poll.

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Giuliani's unbending response to the shooting has cost him. Fifty-eight percent of those polled said the mayor made a tense situation worse, while 71 percent said he shouldn't have released those records. And over a third of his own supporters say he made things worse.

Beyond that, the Empire State's voters are no longer delighted with how Hizzoner handled crime in the Big Apple. In six weeks, Giuliani's approval rating in this area fell nearly twenty poits, from 71 percent down to 52 percent. And 59 percent of New Yorkers think he's done a poor job of handling race relations.

Observers, friends and Giuliani supporters have been puzzled and dismayed by his response - and the poll numbers vindicate their concern.

"He ends up creating crises where there shouldn't be one," lamented Rep. Peter King, a GOP Congressman from Long Island who supports Giuliani.

And the mayor's intransigence threatens to keep the Dorismond shooting on the front burner.

Nelson Warfield, a Republican consultant who worked for Bob Dole in 1996, said of Giuliani, "It would probably be wise for him to admit it was a misstep and move on, but he doesn't seem to be capable of doing that."

Giuliani's negatives have started to pile up, the CBS-Times Poll shows. 39 percent of voters polled have an unfavorable impression of the mayor; a year ago, only 28 percent did. Voters think he's spent more time attacking Clinton than she has spent attacking him. Doubts persist about whether Giuliani is suited to the Senate - about half the voters think he wouldn't be able to compromise once he got to Washington. And that's a problem, since 81 percent of voters prefer a senator with some flexibility. Only 47 percent of voters think Giuliani really cares about their needs and problems.

Part of the problem, King believes, is that the tough guy who took over a city careening out of control is no longer as attractive, now that times are different. "While he's a good wartime mayor, he's not always a very good peacetime mayor."

While Giuliani is no stranger to combativeness and controversy - indeed, he seems to thrive on it - this latest episode comes at an awkward moment. Clinton seems less of an opportunistic outsider and more like a viable candidate. Her supporters are more likely than Giuliani's to say they're satisfied with their candidate and say they're sure they'll stick with their choice.

And that worries Warfield, who supports the mayor. "If Rudy Giuliani's vote is essentially an anti-Hillary Clinton vote," Warfield said, "he's not a strong candidate."

Clinton's numbers are comparatively warm and fuzzy, compared to Giuliani's: 59 percent of voters think she cares about their concerns, while 68 percent think she's trying to bring New Yorkers together. And a hearty 78 percent think she could compromise and work well in the Senate.

Giuliani can find a few silver linings in the latest numbers, though. When it comes to experience, voters give him the edge over Clinton - 65 percent think he has the right kind of background. And more important, it's only April. True, voters are already paying close attention to the race, and only a handful are undecided. But, as Warfield said, "There are going to be a lot more twists and turns like this between now and November."