Gallup Generic Ballot Back to Even
Forget about that 10 point Republican advantage: Gallup's latest poll showing the generic ballot preferences of registered voters finds a generic Republican tied with a generic Democrat at 46 percent.
Last week, Gallup showed Republicans leading 51 percent to 41 percent, fueling speculation about a coming GOP wave in the midterm elections. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee e-mailed the latest poll to reporters almost immediately after it came out in an effort to push back against that narrative.
Republicans have led in the generic ballot survey for the past five weeks, but there has been plenty of movement in the poll this year. At one point this summer, Gallup showed Democrats leading the generic ballot 49 percent to 43 percent.
While Democrats will welcome the latest returns, they should probably keep their celebration muted: Republicans continue to hold a 25 percentage point lead over Democrats when it comes to whether party members are "very enthusiastic" about voting in the 2010 midterm elections. It remains likely that Democrats will lose at least 25 seats in the House in November, and their 39-seat majority is very much at risk.
Still, the latest poll means that pundits may want to reconsider some of their comments tied to the returns last week, which offered the largest Republican lead in Gallup's generic ballot since the company began surveying voters on the question in 1942. Politico, for example, deemed the returns the sign of a "title wave" and suggested that it "reinforces the rapidly forming prevailing view that the horizon is as bleak for Democrats as it ever has been."
