Follow Straw Poll's Money Trail

The Iowa straw poll for Republican presidential candidates is scheduled for Saturday. No convention delegates will be selected. And it will be another six months before real voters start choosing the nominees. But as CBS News Correspondent Eric Engberg reports in this "Reality Check," the outcome could mean big bucks for the winners.

Time out! Campaign '99? Showdown?

Has anyone noticed it will be another six months before real live voters start choosing the nominees? Or that Saturday's straw poll will pick absolutely zero convention delegates?

Maybe so, but it is a big deal this year for one reason: money. Ask a guy who quit the race because he couldn't raise enough.

Rep. John Kasich, former GOP candidate said, "The straw poll will force some people to drop out. It will be a measure of a candidate's ability to organize and raise money. I just think it's premature."

The straw poll was originally contrived years ago by Iowa party leaders as a fund-raising and publicity stunt.

It didn't have much impact; it came early and was often wrong.

In years gone by, the Iowa caucuses, coming in February of an election year, were an uplifting exercise in door-to-door politicking, a place where a "who's he" candidate, like Jimmy Carter one year, might get started.

It won't be like that in 2000. In an effort to have more clout, may states -- including delegate-rich states like California, Ohio and Michigan -- have pushed up the dates of their primaries, creating an early crush.

That means candidates need to raise big dollars now to prepare for those big states that are expensive to campaign in.

As a consequence, lesser-known candidates simply can't wait for an early small-state win to loosen up the checkbooks of contributors.

Kasich said, "If you move all those primaries up and you do not give people the opportunity to build their grassroots campaign with a sufficient amount of time in between these primaries, it puts too much emphasis on money - too much emphasis on fund raising."

People who have big dollars to contribute to Republicans will now be watching Saturday's straw poll for signs of who looks like a contender. Anybody who doesn't will find money harder to come by.

That won't affect millionaire publisher Steve Forbes, who writes his own checks.

Texas Gov. George W. Bush recently claimed: "We've raised, as of right now, $35.5 million."

For Bush, who has raised more than all the others put together, the Iowa straw vote looks like an opportunity to winnow the field. He spent $40,000 just to rent space for a rally.

For cash-strapped Lamar Alexander, it means buying TV ads clearly targeted on Bush and his family, and money trees.

"I've been all over Iowa becausthe presidency's too important to be bought or inherited. It ought to be earned," said Alexander in one of his TV ads.

It will not be a textbook case of proud Midwest democracy in action. Fewer than one percent of Iowans will take part. But the straw vote will almost certainly accomplish one thing: fewer candidates coming out than going in.

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