Few Clues In China Crash

Investigators ruled out weather, severe turbulence and air traffic control mistakes on Tuesday as causes of a China Airlines crash in the Taiwan Strait that killed 225 passengers and crew.

But with most of the wreckage missing in the dark, choppy waters, aviation experts had few clues about why the Boeing 747-200 broke into four pieces 20 minutes after taking off Saturday from Taipei for Hong Kong.

"Not even up to 0.1 percent of the entire wreckage has been found yet," said Kay Yong, the chief investigator for Taiwan's Aviation Safety Council.

It was the third airliner crash in Asia in six weeks.

U.S. crash experts who investigated the mid-air explosion of a Trans World Airlines jumbo jet in 1996 arrived on a Taiwan island Tuesday to try to find the cause of a China Airlines crash that killed 225 people.

So far, officials have said that there was no evidence of a terrorist or missile attack. And Yong said that the weather was clear and there was no severe turbulence or problems with air traffic control.

But he and the U.S. investigators who joined the probe on Tuesday declined to speculate on possible crash causes.

China Airlines' fourth fatal crash since 1994 triggered a 12 percent, or $5 million, cut in its 2002 earnings forecast and travel agents reported canceled bookings. The carrier's shares fell the daily seven percent maximum for the second day in a row.

Adding to its problems, a credit rating company downgraded China Airlines' debt and a U.S. airline, Delta, postponed a codesharing deal, as wailing relatives of the dead criticized search efforts as too little and too late.

The pilots reported no problems before the jet disappeared on radar screens and went down near the Penghu islands, off Taiwan's western coast and about 180 miles from Taipei.

One popular theory is that an explosion — perhaps an electrical short sparking fuel vapors — blew apart the plane as it climbed above 30,000 feet.

Some experts have noted that radar showed that when the plane broke apart, three pieces of the plane continued forward. But another piece shot backward, as if propelled by a blast.

But Yong said that an explosion would not necessarily be the only cause of the piece to go backward.

Speed and aerodynamics help keep massive planes in the air, but once that streamline is broken, it could face what flight experts call a "drag force," he said. That force could be strong enough to push a portion of the plane in a completely different direction, he said.

"A simple breakup could cause a part of the plane to go backward," Yong said.

Miao Chun-yi, a professor of aeronautics at National Chengkung University, said metal fatigue — hard to detect during inspections — could have caused the 22-year-old plane to split apart in the air.

Metal fatigue can develop because planes constantly expand and contract during takeoffs and landings, Miao said. Taiwan's humid weather could cause corrosion and worsen the problem, he said.

The plane's "black boxes," or the voice and flight data recorders, might also provide vital clues about the crash. But beacon signals from the black boxes have yet to be detected, and the devices might have been damaged, Yong said.

"The black box could have a power outage if it (the crash) was a very, very sudden situation," Yong said.

"I very much hope wreckage of the aircraft can be salvaged, which will allow us to learn more. Personally, I think wreckage is more important than black boxes," said Yong, the head of Taiwan's Aviation Safety Council.

The U.S. group investigators included four officials from the National Transportation Safety Board and two from the Federal Aviation Administration. U.S. investigators traditionally assist in crash probes that involve American-made planes.

Some have said Saturday's accident was similar to a TWA flight from New York to Paris that exploded shortly after takeoff in 1996 near the coast of Long Island, New York, killing 230 people. The probable cause of that Boeing 747-100's crash was a fuel tank explosion, investigators said.

But NTSB investigator Greg Philips, who investigated the TWA crash, said, "It's much too early to comment on that." Philips noted that the two planes were in different phases of flight and at different altitudes

Although about 200 naval, coast guard and fishing vessels were searching for bodies, about 85 had been recovered by Tuesday night. Officials hoped that clear weather would turn up more, but helicopter pilots said little was seen floating on the surface.

"At this point, the bodies have either sunk beneath the sea or have been eaten by sharks," said one pilot, who requested anonymity.

Clutching flowers, photographs and victims' clothing, relatives of those killed in the crash sailed out to sea in a traditional rite to call home the souls of the dead.

On the Taiwan-held island of Penghu, nearest the crash site, other relatives wailed in sorrow and vented anger at the Taiwan government and airline officials over slow progress in the search.

Some, frustrated that searchers have so far recovered only 85 bodies, tried to rent boats to conduct their own hunt.

"What is the government doing?" asked one woman, mourning her missing son.

"I want to see him if he's alive. I want to see his body if he's dead," she shouted.

The bodies of many victims are believed to have drifted from the crash site or, strapped to their seats, sunk to the bottom.

The wreckage is spread across a wide area of land and sea and is expected to take weeks or months to recover.

Farmers in Taiwan's western coastal county of Changhua found in their fields bits of foam padding, baggage check-in stubs and scraps of in-flight magazines from the aircraft.

Meanwhile, Delta Airlines postponed a "code-sharing agreement" with China Airlines that was to start June 1, said China Airlines spokesman Paul Wang. Delta has not said whether it would cancel the deal, which allows the airlines to sell seats on each others' flights as if they were their own, he said.

It's customary in Taiwan for company leaders to take responsibility for major failures by resigning.

However, China Airlines Chairman Y.L. Lee, a retired air force pilot, told TVBS cable news that quitting would be irresponsible and cowardly. Lee said he had to stay to figure out why the plane crashed.

"I've been a hero all my life," Lee said. "Why would I be a coward now?"