Doppler Shift Tuesday

Because of the time difference, Californians may see balloons falling, banners waving and supporters cheering for one or another of the presidential candidates in New York before primary polls even close in the Golden State next week.

What has been a quadrennial general election concern in presidential races has surfaced eight months early this time around because of the March 7 Super Tuesday primaries. In New York, primary polls close at 9 p.m. EST, which is only 6 p.m. in California, where polls won't close for another two hours.

"The whole Northeast becomes more significant," said pollster Lee Miringoff, head of Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie.

"It has a dampening effect" on the West Coast vote, said California Secretary of State Bill Jones, who recently abandoned Bush in favor McCain.

In addition to New York and California, the March 7 primary lineup includes the New England states of Maine, Massachuetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Vermont as well as Ohio, Maryland, Georgia and Missouri. All are in the Eastern time zone except for Missouri which is in the Central time zone, still two hours ahead of California.

California's Jones has been a leader in the unsuccessful battle to get the television networks to stop using exit poll results to declare winners in eastern states while West Coast polls are still open.

In 1980, then-President Jimmy Carter conceded defeat to former California Gov. Ronald Reagan an hour before polls closed in Reagan's home state. Even before that, the TV networks had proclaimed Reagan's victory.

Among pollsters, the impact of exit poll information is a subject of some debate.

"If they start coloring in the map with one color and it's McCain's or Bush's, it has a value," Marist's Miringoff said. "The talk of the evening becomes that."

"In the 80's when Carter conceded, that probably hurt Democratic chances (in California), but I don't think there's any clear-cut cases that this makes a big difference," Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center an president of the National Council on Public Polls, said.

Also, Kohut said the media have a responsibility to report the news as it happens.

"Who wins New York is an important fact and it's certainly worthy of reporting," he said.

Republican consultant Jay Severin said the biggest impact could be on McCain and Bradley because they are viewed as insurgents who appeal to nontraditional primary voters.

"It could have a big effect, especially among people who are not hard-core voters ... They may stay home if they think it doesn't matter," Severin said.

According to recent polls, it could be Gore who has the clock advantage. Polls show him leading former New York Knicks basketball star Bradley by a wide margin in New York, while Bush and McCain are locked in a tight race in the state.