Delaware By The Numbers

Texas Governor George W. Bush comfortably won the Delaware Republican primary on Tuesday, thanks to a solidly Republican electorate and the failure of Senator John McCain to campaign in the state. Surprisingly, however, McCain came in second place.

Steve Forbes, who won in Delaware in 1996 and campaigned the most in the state this year, came in a disappointing third. According to the CBS News exit poll, Forbes failed to convince Delawares Republican primary voters that he was the true conservative in the race, and he retained less than 50 percent of voters who supported him four years ago.

THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTORATE

Unlike New Hampshire, Delaware allows only registered party members to participate in primary elections. As a result, the Delaware GOP electorate was more typically Republican than the New Hampshire electorate that handed McCain an 18-point victory on February 1. Only 18 percent of Delaware GOP voters described themselves as independents, compared to 41 percent in New Hampshire. And 62 percent of Delaware GOP voters called themselves conservatives, compared to 51 percent of New Hampshire Republicans.

Bush performed best among self-described Republicans and among conservatives, receiving 56 percent and 54 percent among each group, respectively. McCains strength remained among independents, who gave him 42 percent support. Forbes, who has tried to define himself as the conservative alternative to Bush, still trailed Bush by nearly 30 points among strong conservatives.

CANDIDATE QUALITIES

Delaware Republican primary voters were divided over which candidate McCain or Bush is more likely to say what he believes rather than what people want to hear: 30 percent said McCain and 34 percent said Bush. In New Hampshire, McCain held a 49 percent to 17 percent advantage over Bush on this question.

When asked to choose among seven candidate qualities, voters most frequently - 26 percent - said they had been looking for a candidate who would stand up for what he believes. Among these voters, McCain received 37 percent of the vote, which helped boost him to his second-place finish.

Bushs voters most frequently pointed to the fact that he can win in November, and that he represents true conservative values (22 percent each). In contrast, only 2 percent of McCains voters said winning in November was important to their vote. Forbes voters said that their candidate stands up for what he believes (37 percent) and represents true conservative values (20 percent).

Among all voters who prized conservative values, however, Bush received 62 percent of the vote to Forbes 22 percent.

While many voters thought McCains military record was important, veterans still supported Bush over the former prisoner of war. Among veterans who made up 30 percent of the vote Bush received 50 percent to 29 percent for McCain. Overall, 47 percent of voters said McCains military record was important.

EPUBLICAN PRIMARY ISSUES

The issues that affected Delawares GOP primary voters the most were moral values and taxes, chosen by 27 percent and 24 percent of voters, respectively; Social Security/Medicare was a distant third at 13 percent.

Among voters most concerned with taxes, Forbes captured first place with 47 percent of the vote. But Forbes came in a distant third among voters who chose moral values as their top issue: Bush received 59 percent of the vote to 22 percent for McCain and only 11 percent for Forbes.

Republican primary voters believe that campaign finance reform would be good for the political system, although few name it as a deciding issue. Only 6 percent chose campaign finance reform as a top issue, but 71 percent said it would help the system. Surprisingly, among those who said reform would help the system, Bush received 45 percent of the vote to only 31 percent for McCain.

CAMPAIGNING AND THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BOUNCE

Personally campaigning in Delaware helped Forbes and, to a lesser extent, Bush. Among voters who decided their vote over the weekend, Forbes tied Bush 35 percent to 36 percent.

After campaigning in the state on Monday, Bush received 48 percent of the vote from those who decided on Tuesday, to around 20 percent for both Forbes and McCain. Bushs strongest support, however, came from those who decided whom to support much earlier in the game: among those who decided before last week, Bush received 59 percent of the vote.

McCain received a slight bounce from his New Hampshire performance. Among those who decided whom to support during last week, McCain split the vote with Bush and Forbes: 34 percent for McCain, 33 percent for Bush and 30 percent for Forbes.