Decision Time For McCain

How now, Senator McCain?

In the aftermath of the multiple defeats inflicted on him in Super Tuesday's showdown, does Johnny call it quits and go marching home to heal his wounds in the blazing sun of the Arizona desert?

Or does the old warrior fight on in his now-quixotic campaign for the Republican presidential nomination?

In spite of Tuesday's results - a clear and decisive string of victories for Governor George W. Bush that puts him firmly in control of his party's leadership - the latter course of action is not as impractical as it might seem at first glance. And there is ample precedent for it.

Back in 1980, for example, the Republican front-runner, Ronald Reagan, had the nomination virtually nailed down by the middle of March. But that didn't deter his chief rival, George Bush the Elder, from persisting in his challenge all the way to the end of the primary season in June.

By keeping his fragile candidacy alive through the spring, Mr. Bush rallied enough delegates and other supporters to his cause to give him leverage at the GOP convention in Detroit. And he needed every bit of that leverage to induce Mr. Reagan to pick him as his running mate.

You may recall that Nancy Reagan and others who were close to the future president had no great affection for Mr. Bush (to put it mildly) and did not want him on their ticket.

In fact, even after the convention opened for business, Mr. Reagan was still scanning the field for an alternative to George Bush. But in the end, guided in large part by a concern for party unity and cohesion, Mr. Reagan tossed the vice-presidential bouquet to the man who had refused to wilt under the pressure of his big charge through the primaries.

So that is a scenario that McCain could pursue. If he stays in the race, wins an occasional primary, and picks up his share of delegates at various stops along the way, he could build a solid case for himself as the most deserving choice when the time comes for Bush to select his running mate.

And, needless to say, the Texas governor would be especially mindful of the parallel to his father's strategy 20 years ago.

But even before the Republican primary campaign turned ugly - with charges and countercharges that went to the heart of personal character - McCain made it clear how underwhelmed he was by the prospect of running for vice president.

And given the ferocity of their attacks on each other, it would take a rapprochement of epic proportions - comparable to Monica Lewinsky and Linda Tripp letting bygones be bygones - to get these two guys on the same ticket. So you can scratch that option.

Which means that McCain may well be on the verge of throwing water on the campfire and calling in the hounds he unleashed in this winter's primary challenge. Having waged a valiant and spirited effort that far exceeded everyone's expectations, he may be ready to conclude that the time has come to close ranks and, like all good men, come to the aid of hs party.

You can be sure that's how the smart money is playing it. But I still have my doubts. For there is an intriguing third alternative that should not be overlooked, and that is a third-party candidacy for the White House.

There are a number of reasons why McCain might choose to take such a plunge and re-launch his campaign from a different battle station.

First of all, his dander is up - big time. There is nothing feigned about his anger over what he believes to have been unscrupulous tactics by the Bush team. And given the visceral depth of his outrage, McCain may not be ready to give up the fight and could well decide that at this point, the only way to undermine Bush's bandwagon is to mount a third-party campaign against it.

After all, the senator's core constituency throughout the primaries has been a coalition of moderate Republicans, independents and disaffected Democrats (as well as a robust influx of first-time voters), and a third-party run plays to McCain's maverick appeal.

Moreover, a recent poll reveals that McCain would go into a three-man race with an unusually strong base of support for an independent candidate. When asked to choose among Bush, McCain and Vice President Al Gore (who has all but sewed up the Democratic nomination), the breakdown was as follows: Bush 35 percent, Gore 34 and McCain 24.

In other words, a gain of a mere five or six points could turn the three-man contest into a virtual dead heat and transform our orderly presidential politics into electoral havoc, a November hodgepodge with no clear winner.

Also keep in mind that from the time he announced his candidacy, McCain has been running as a reformer. What has galvanized his campaign more than anything else has been his determination to shake up the political establishment in Washington.

Nor should we forget that the senator's prime issue, his political raison d'être - campaign finance reform - also happens to be the top issue on the agenda of Ross Perot's Reform Party this year.

But don't, under any circumstances, expect the senator to officially join the Reform Party, as another former Republican and presidential aspirant, Pat Buchanan, did last year.

McCain may be bold, perhaps even impetuous, but he is not suicidal. And third-party run or no, he will not give up his status as a Republican senator - unless, of course, he's elected president.

If he does make the jump, look for him to run as an independent, non-aligned candidate who, as such, would welcome the support of all parties, including the one established by Perot eight years ago.

Finally, McCain is well aware that his favorite historical hero - Theodore Roosevelt - did not hesitate to break ranks with the Republican Party he had led as president because he believed it had failed to deliver on its promises of reform.

In 1912, T.R. decided to run as a third-party candidate even though he knew that such a challenge would probably lead - as t did - to the defeat of the Republican president, William Howard Taft.

If Teddy Roosevelt was willing to put principle above party loyalty, can you imagine John McCain having trouble making that choice?

So, will it happen? Well, I've never had much luck in the crystal ball business, but I will offer a modest tip.

Listen for a zither playing music from the soundtrack of a 1949 classic movie, which featured Orson Welles in the role of a mysterious, black-market criminal named Harry Lime.

If you should hear the theme from The Third Man emanating from McCain's inner circle, then you can be sure that the senator and his deputies are gearing up to challenge the status quo in both our major political parties.