Dealin' With Elian

Worried about the political fallout from the weekend's dramatic Elian Gonzalez developments? Probably not, but the folks whose livelihoods depend on public sentiment may be. Let's take a look at our presumptive presidential candidates, George W. Bush and Al Gore.

Gore is the one who has limped about on this issue, saying, in a much-publicized break with the Clinton administration, that Elian should stay in the U.S. until the courts resolve his case.

"He was tagged with the charge of me-too-ism. He was tagged with simply pandering to a particular group," noted William Claggett, a professor of political science at Florida State University. Worse yet, that political group was Cuban-Americans, who are solid Republican voters and highly unlikely to flock to Gore under any circumstances.

Comes the weekend with its creepy picture of a screaming Elian and a gun-toting marshal, and the best response Gore can muster is: "As I have said, I believe this issue should have been handled through a family court and with the family coming together." Tepid at best.

In a worst-of-both-worlds scenario, some Republicans are busily tarring the vice president with the raid.

"The painful fact is, he is still part of the administration, and he has to take some responsibility for what happens," said Bill Dalbec a Republican consultant. Tough talk, since Gore almost certainly opposed it, wasn't involved in the decision to carry it out and apparently received no advance notice of it.

But the point, Dalbec argued, is that the Elian raid calls up images of Waco and of other Justice Department or Clinton administration snafus. It shows again, says Dalbec, "these guys really aren't ready to handle the government, even after seven-and-a-half years in administration."

What should Gore do now? "Probably the less, the better," suggested Claggett. In fact, Gore can probably do little except say he wouldn't have handled things this way, but what matters now is the best interests of the child, so let the legal process grind its way through the problem. He will almost certainly try to keep the issue at arm's length. "You're going to see him keep his head down on this issue and not talk about it very much, and not see a lot of media access until it plays out a little bit more," said Dalbec.

There's light at the end of the tunnel for Gore. Only in Florida, and maybe not even there, is Elian likely to linger as a political issue. As Margolis put it, "This is not one of those things people are going to walk into a voting booth and make their decision on."

Particularly since, at least for now, a majority of Americans think the government raid was the right thing to do. A new CBS News poll shows that while there's doubt about the degree of force used, 63 percent of those polled think the relatives wouldn't have handed Elian over, and therefore the raid was necessary. Fifty-two percent approve of Janet Reno's handling of the matter - and that's up 10 percent from last week.

Which makes one wonder, is it the Republicans who are all wrong on this issue? Their full-throated cries of outrage are entertaining reading, but reflect a minority view. George W. Bush's own statement was mild-mannered compared to the thundering invective from Rep. Tom DeLay and Sen. Trent Lott. In fact, one Republican observer worried the party's congressional leadership is too far out on this issue: "They've shown before they can turn popular opinion against us because they're too strident and partisan."

To that end, Bush needs to "walk a finer line on the nonsense," said Margolis. Cuban-American support is great, but you could see Rep. Bob Smith shifting uncomfortably a few times as Marisleysis Gonzalez unburdened herself Sunday. Claggett, with the perspective of a Floridian in Tallahassee, not Miami, warned Bush against standing too close to a group that's "more and more perceived as rather extreme."