David Edelstein makes his Oscar predictions

Among the multitudes watching the Oscars tonight you can count our film critic David Edelstein:

Good Oscar Day, and to those of you up for awards: Drink. Start now, don't stop. We want more visibly-intoxicated nominees.

And don't smile and clap when you lose. Smash something! No one will remember who won -- they'll remember you.

If you do win, thank the person you're cheating on your spouse with. You know it's weighing on you. Share it with the Academy.

To those of you placing large bets based on which movies you like, play cards with me. Please! There's a world of hidden Oscar campaigning that determines these things. Nominees go to parties, weddings, brises.

You could, of course, listen to hundreds of online experts, some calling themselves, "Oscarologists." Where do they get this sacred knowledge? A place where the sun don't shine. But they have something you haven't got: a diploma. I can get you one for ten bucks.

Everyone agrees it's a rare three-way-race among "12 Years a Slave," "Gravity," and "American Hustle," but that the likely winner will be "12 Years." That's not because voters love it -- many I know think it's torture -- but because Hollywood wants the world to know it takes slavery very, very seriously.

They'll give the Best Director award to Alfonso Cuaron for "Gravity," the movie they did love.

Complete CBSNews.com coverage: The Academy Awards

Matthew McConaughey will win for "Dallas Buyers Club" because a) he lost a ton of weight; and b) he's spectacular in the HBO series "True Detective," which happened to be running as votes were cast.

Cate Blanchett is a lock for "Blue Jasmine." Some wondered if recent accusations against her director, Woody Allen, would hurt her. No, they'll help. Everyone feels sorry for the poor unfortunate actress caught in the middle.

Jared Leto will likely win for "Dallas Buyers Club" because he's amazingly convincing as a transsexual, and because people feel guilty for calling him Jared Lee-toe all these years. Also, that flirting thing he does. What a cutie!

Supporting Actress is a toughie. Lupita Nyong'o suffered eloquently in "12 Years a Slave." Jennifer Lawrence charmed peoples' pants off in "American Hustle." I say, flip a coin.

You're on your own now, but let me remind you what the Oscars, for all their grandiosity, are not: a measure of cinematic greatness.

They're a game, a sport -- and if you watch in the right spirit, they're Olympian in their power to make you cheer . . . and gasp in horror.

Join David Edelstein, who will be live-blogging Sunday's Oscar ceremony, at vulture.com.

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