"Dancing with the Stars" Season 12: Ranking the competitors
It can only mean one thing - the new season of "Dancing with the Stars" begins tonight.
And as the 11 new competitors start to tango, waltz and cha-cha towards the championship, one question is up for debate: Who has the best shot at winning?
We used our knowledge of past seasons and champions to make some early guesses on who will be frontrunners and who will head home early. Here's our (very unscientific) list:
Pictures: "Dancing with the Stars" Season 12
Poll: Is this season's roster a hit or miss?
Timeline: Highlights of past "Dancing" seasons
The Frontrunners (Guys): Hines Ward, Chris Jericho.
Past seasons have taught us that athletes usually go far on this show. It's no surprise - they're used to training hard and know how their bodies move. Ward also has the Steelers fanbase behind him (Hey, if they couldn't win this year's Super Bowl, a "DWTS" trophy isn't a bad consolation prize), and Jericho has proved he's charismatic both in and out of the WWE ring (remember when he was a commentator for VH1's "Best Week Ever"?), so these two might do well with voters.
But take note: the athlete rule isn't absolute. Neither Kurt Warner or Rick Fox made it to the finals last season.
Examples: Shawn Johnson, Apolo Anton Ono, Kristi Yamaguchi, Evan Lysacek, Chad Ochocinco, Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith.
The Frontrunners (Ladies): Kirstie Alley, Petra Nemcova
Like Jennifer Grey before her, Alley is a star with something to prove. Fans who loved her in everything from "Cheers" to "Fat Actress" will want to see her succeed. And if she can make good on her hope to lose weight as the show goes on (and improve in her dancing, of course), we think people will keep her in to see her progress.
Models can be hits (Joanna Krupa) or misses (Josie Maran) on the show, but Nemcova's amazing story gives her something to dance for - she survived the 2004 tsunami and then founded a charity that helps children in disaster areas. In the wake of the recent crisis in Japan, we think she can rally people behind her - both for "DWTS" votes and to encourage relief efforts. But, again, it all really depends on how she can dance.
Examples: Jennifer Grey, Donnie and Marie Osmond, Jennie Garth, Joanna Krupa
Likely to Leave Early: Sugar Ray Leonard, Mike Catherwood
We know what you're thinking - shouldn't Leonard be up there with the other athletes? But, age always plays a factor in this show, and it's likely he won't be able to keep up with the younger, sprightlier competitors.
As for Catherwood, we'll just say it: not many people know who he is. He's going to have to really work to drive a fanbase together that can keep him in this competition.
Examples: Florence Henderson, Buzz Aldrin, Cloris Leachman, Tom DeLay, Aiden Turner, Ashley Hamilton
Fan Favorites: Wendy Williams
Williams has a lot of people in her corner, thanks to her popular talk show and over-the-top personality. Even if she can't dance, it's likely fans will vote for her. As many people have lamented, this season really lacks an attention-grabbing, love-'em-or-hate-'em personality like Kate Gosselin or Mike "The Situation" Sorrentino. If Williams is the closest thing we have, this can definitely work in her favor.
Examples: Bristol Palin, Jerry Springer, Steve-O, Kate Gosselin, Pamela Anderson, Mike "The Situation" Sorrentino
Ones We're Unsure About: Kendra Wilkinson, Ralph Macchio, Chelsea Kane, Romeo
Reality stars like Wilkinson are either really good (like Audrina Patridge, who left way too soon), or really bad (no one wants to remember Kate Gosselin's dancing). So, her ability to survive the competition will really depend on how she can dance - though, it couldn't hurt to have her husband and adorable baby in the audience for support.
Kane and Romeo will both appeal to younger viewers - she's on a Disney series and he made his fame on a Nickelodeon show and with kid-friendly rap songs. But they will have to appeal to the larger "Dancing" audience - through both skill and charisma - to stay alive. They should look to Kyle Massey and Cody Linley as examples of how to do it right.
And as for Macchio...the only other grown-up child star we've had on the show, Tatum O'Neal, did not stay in the competition long. Is being the original "Karate Kid" enough to resonate with voters? We're thinking not, but you never know.
Do you agree with our predictions? Vote in our poll for who will win and tell us your thoughts in the comments.