Can't Get a Toyota? Consider These High-Mileage American Cars
The day before the earthquake hit Japan, a cargo ship left a port near Yokohama carrying 600 Nissan Leaf plug-in electric cars to the U.S. for distribution in April -- 10 times the number of Leafs delivered to customers here in February. While Nissan was lucky with this shipment, the devastating earthquake and tsunami has slowed down production and crippled shipping facilities and suppliers for Nissan as well as Toyota, Honda, and Subaru. The result: possibly higher prices and slim supply for some Japanese models. But American manufacturers, finally, are offering alternatives that are just as good.
"Japanese hybrids and small cars, with few exceptions, are produced in Japanese plants," notes Jessica Caldwell, director of pricing and industry analysis at Edmunds.com. "With rising gas prices in the U.S., demand for fuel-efficient vehicles is likely to increase, and auto makers who have a supply of these cars will reap the benefits." High-mileage models from Ford and Chevrolet may end up getting more attention, and reviewers say those American alternatives are surprisingly competitive. The bad news for you is that new car prices may rise as Japanese companies have less inventory to move and therefore less need for rebates and other incentives. That would ease price competition for other brands, suggests Lachey Plache, an economist at Edmunds.
Some of the most popular Japanese models -- such as the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord -- are made in U.S. plants. Supplies of these models should be disrupted less, if at all. For instance, Honda, which makes 80% of its models sold here in North American plants, noted in a statement that the most of the parts for those models come from factories in the region. The company said, however, that it was still assessing the long-term impact of the tsunami since a few parts are still made in Japan. A shortage would also affect Detroit-based companies, since they too use some Japanese electronic parts, including computer chips and navigation systems. Subaru and Toyota announced they were slowing down production in U.S. plants until they got a better idea of their parts supply situation.
Here's are some of the cars that may be most affected by the Japanese earthquake, and the alternative models worth considering from American, European and Korean companies.
Electric Cars Despite the shipment that made it out of Japan, Nissan has had trouble keeping up with demand for the Leaf (at right). A worthy competitor -- though more expensive -- is the 
Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in electric that also has a back-up gasoline generator. Chevrolet has announced plans to begin selling the Volt in all 50 states by the end of this year. While Volt has the immediate advantage, long-term supply disruption could hurt it too since its transmission is made in Japan.
Hybrids The top-selling hybrid, Toyota Prius and all hybrid models of Toyota's luxury brand Lexus are made in Japan. Sales for Prius (below left) 
surged 70% in February along with rising gas prices, and some local dealers were reporting shortages of the model. Toyota officials say they believe the supplies will be adequate unless disruption in the Japanese plant is worse than now believed. If you are considering the Prius, you ought to kick the tires of the Ford Fusion Hybrid or the Hyundai Sonata Hybrid as well.
Small Cars The Honda Fit (below right) among the top-ranked subcompacts in the Consumer Report rankings, is made in Japan, as is competitor the Toyota Yaris. If supplies grow tight on 
these cars, take a look instead at the Ford Fiesta and possibly the Volkswagen Golf or Chevrolet Cruze.
Other Popular Models Using a measurement called days to turn -- how long it takes an average dealer to sell a model once it reaches his lot -- Edmunds calculated which made-in-Japan models seemed especially likely to be in short supply. Nissan's Quest minivan (10 days) and Juke small wagon (23 days) were near the top of this list, as was the Subaru Forester (26 days), among top-ranked small SUVs by Consumer Reports. If inventories of these models run short, it's less clear which competitors will be the beneficiaries than in the case of hybrids and small cars.
Full recovery time for auto plants, their suppliers and shippers won't be determined until the Japanese recovery effort moves ahead. But keep in mind these potential supply disruptions if you plan to shop for a car any time soon.
Photos courtesy of the manufacturers
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