Bush's Latino Problem
The Spanish language is "muy bello," George W. Bush told a group of supporters in California last month, "very beautiful." But exit polls from the state's recent primary show it will take more than sweet talk to attract Latinos to his presidential campaign.
Hispanic voters made up an estimated 13 percent of the California electorate on Super Tuesday. That's slightly higher than the participation rate in the 1996 general election, when a debate over immigration spurred increased interest. But this powerful bloc of swing voters leaned heavily toward Democratic candidates, and more than half expressed negative feelings for the GOP front-runner.
Rosalind Gold, with the nonpartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials says the "fairly strong turnout" suggests Hispanic voters may feel more included this campaign season. "There's certainly an awareness that these candidates are paying lip service to Latino issues," says Gold.
More from Theresa Bujnoch on the increasing influence of Hispanic voters.color>size>
Both Bush and Al Gore ran Spanish-language ads in the weeks preceding the California primary and all of the presidential candidates met with Hispanic groups while visiting the state. Bush appeared most eager to build on the Hispanic voting base he has in Texas. The governor attended a town hall-style meeting sponsored by the Univision network in Los Angeles and even agreed to debate on Hispanic issues, but "solamente in espanol" (only in Spanish).
However exit polls from the California primary raise questions about Bush's ability to attract more Latinos to the Republican Party in the fall. Latino voters favored Gore over Bush by more than 2 to 1, and 52 percent of Hispanic voters said they viewed Bush unfavorably.
| Hispanic Vote in California Primary Gore: 55% source: CBS News/VNS sixe> |
Blame it on Bob Jones? Probably not.
The average Hispanic voter has likely never heard of the private university in South Carolina, where a Bush visit lit a firestorm of controversy. Still, voters may have been aware of an "aura of intolerance" around Bush, says Gregory Rodriguez, a Los Angeles-based writer and fellow of the New America Foundation. "The whole religious right (issue) may have turned people off," he says.
But Bush should have plenty of time to reinvent himself before the November election. "This will test how good of a politician he is," says Rodriguez, who saw no sign of a Catholic backlash against Bush despite McCain's efforts to portray him as anti-Cathlic.
Bush could also benefit from the socially conservative nature of Latino voters. In the primary, Hispanics supported the state's Proposition 22 (which effectively banned gay marriages) by a larger majority than any other ethnic group.
"We know that it's going to be a long, hard battle," says Margita Thompson, a spokeswoman for Bush's California campaign, "but its something we're committed to." She says Bush will continue to focus on education, a key issue among Latinos. "The Latino community thinks the governor is sincere" because of his record in Texas, home to 5.5 million Latinos.
And the California exit polls contained this bit of good news for the Republicans: Bush and McCain received 32 percent of the overall vote among Hispanics, which means at least one-third would consider voting outside the Democratic party.